Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Thursday, May 27-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are higher U.S. stock index and crude oil prices, and
a lower U.S. dollar index.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Crude oil futures prices are solidly higher again
this morning. Price action this morning and the
past two days does suggest a near-term market low
is now in place in crude oil. If crude oil has
indeed put in a near-term low, then that's also
good news for other recently beaten down commodity
futures markets. Market bottom or not, crude oil
futures will continue to be a major "outside force"
for many other commodity futures markets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early morning
trading today, on short covering from recent strong
selling pressure. The U.S. stock index futures
bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. However, solid price gains
today and Friday would suggest near-term market
lows are in place.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day, but is
turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,075.00
and then at 1,065.00. Sell stops likely reside just
under those levels. Upside resistance for active
traders today is located at the overnight high of
1,091.90 and then at 1,100.00. Buy stops are likely
located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,089.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day, but is
turning up. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at the overnight
high of 1,841.00 and then at Wednesday's high of
1,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen
at 1,815.00 and then at 1,800.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,841.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,050 and then more stops just below
support at 10,000. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at Wednesday's high of
10,160 and then at 10,200. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,036

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower
in early trading today, on more profit-taking
pressure from recent gains. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage as near-term
uptrends are still in place on the daily charts.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is
turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at 123 16/32 and then at 124 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 123 even and then at 122
16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 122 21/32

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

126 5/32--lifetime high
125 23/32--second pivot point resistance
125 1/32--first pivot point resistance
124 29/32--previous day's high
124 14/32--4-day moving average
124 11/32--previous day's close
124 7/32--pivot point
123 17/32--first pivot point support
123 13/32--previous day's low
123 3/32--9-day moving average
122 23/32--second pivot point support
121 19/32--18-day moving average
118 4/32--Previous Month's high
116 10/32--100-day moving average
113 6/32--previous month's low
111 1/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 120.00.0 and then at the
overnight high of 120.18.5. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is
turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Sell stop orders are likely located just
below support at the overnight low of 119.23.0 and
then at 119.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119.17.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes

121 20/32--lifetime high
121 13/32--second pivot point resistance
120 31/32--first pivot point resistance
120 29/32--previous day's high
120 16/32--previous day's close
120 16/32--4-day moving average
120 14/32--pivot point
120 --first pivot point support
119 30/32--previous day's low
119 24/32--9-day moving average
119 15/32--second pivot point support
118 23/32--18-day moving average
116 21/32--previous month's high
115 20/32--100-day moving average
113 15/32--previous month's low
110 13/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early
trading today, on profit taking, as prices still
hover near the recent 12-month high high. Dollar
index bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
87.50 then at the overnight high of 87.66. Shorter-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 86.87
and then at 86.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 87.09. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0

The September Euro is firmer in early electronic
trading, on short covering. Bears remain in firm
overall technical command. Euro finds sell stop
orders are likely located just below technical
support at 1.2250 and then at 1.2200. Shorter-term
technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the
overnight high of 1.2357 and then at 1.2400. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow
stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1.2339. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are near steady in early
dealings today. Safe-haven buying is supporting the
market, but profit-taking is limiting gains. Gold
bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. For August gold, shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at the overnight high of
$1,220.60 and then at $1,230.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at the overnight low of
$1,211.60 and then at Wednesday's low of 1,202.70.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: $1,220.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading solidly higher again
today on more short-covering. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage, but a strong
close today would hint that a near-term low is in
place. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $74.00 and then at $75.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$72.50 and then at $72.00. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $72.63.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on short
covering amid bullishly postured "outside markets"
that include a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher
stock index and crude oil prices. Grain traders
will continue to focus on what the key "outside
markets" are doing. Traders will closely scrutinize
this morning's weekly USDA export sales data. At
present, weather patterns in the U.S. Corn Belt are
beneficial for crops, which is a bearish
fundamental in the grains.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Wednesday, May 26-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are higher U.S. stock index, crude oil and gold
prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Tuesday's price action in the U.S. stock indexes,
in which prices traded sharply lower and at multi-
month lows early on and then rebounded as the day
went on to close near the session highs and near
unchanged levels, does suggest the stock market
bears have become exhausted at the lower price
levels and that near-term bottoms may be close at
hand in the indexes. --Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today, on short covering from recent strong
selling pressure. The U.S. stock index futures
bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at the overnight low of 1,070.50 and then
at 1,060.00. Sell stops likely reside just under
those levels. Upside resistance for active traders
today is located at 1,090.00 and then at 1,100.00.
Buy stops are likely located just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,067.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 1,840.00 and then at 1,850.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 1,814.00 and then at 1,800.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,841.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,050 and then more stops just below
support at 10,000. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,1500 and then at
10,200. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,036

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower
in early trading today, on a profit-taking pullback
from recent strong gains. Prices hit fresh contract
highs on Tuesday. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage as near-term
uptrends are still in place on the daily charts.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 124 20/32 and then at 125
even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 124
even and then at 123 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 124 30/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 15/32--lifetime high
127 7/32--second pivot point resistance
126 15/32--previous day's high
126 6/32--first pivot point resistance
125 14/32--pivot point
125 5/32--previous day's close
124 22/32--previous day's low
124 20/32--4-day moving average
124 13/32--first pivot point support
123 21/32--second pivot point support
123 3/32--9-day moving average
121 28/32--18-day moving average
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
117 10/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 121.16.0 and then at the
overnight high of 121.23.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders
are likely located just below support at the
overnight low of 120.28.5 and then at 120.16.0.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 121.16.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

122 28/32--second pivot point resistance
122 14/32--lifetime high
122 14/32--previous day's high
122 8/32--first pivot point resistance
121 26/32--pivot point
121 20/32--previous day's close
121 12/32--previous day's low
121 9/32--4-day moving average
121 6/32--first pivot point support
120 24/32--second pivot point support
120 13/32--9-day moving average
119 18/32--18-day moving average
117 31/32--previous month's high
116 29/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early
trading today as prices hover near the recent 12-
month high high. Dollar index bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 87.09
then at last week's high of 87.62. Shorter-term
support is seen at 86.50 and then at 86.00. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
86.74. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

The June Euro is near steady in early electronic
trading. Bears remain in firm overall technical
command. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at the
overnight low of 1.2265 and then at 1.2200.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at the overnight high of 1.2380 and then at
1.2400. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.2339. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are higher in early dealings
today. Safe-haven buying and fresh speculative
buying is supporting the market. Gold bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. For June
gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
$1,220.00 and then at $1,230.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at $1,200.00 and then at
1,190.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,218.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading solidly higher today
on a short-covering bounce in a bear market. Bears
still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $71.00 and then at $72.00. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at
$70.00 and then at the overnight low of $69.21.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: $70.26. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on short
covering amid bullishly postured "outside markets"
that include a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher
stock index and crude oil prices. Grain traders
will continue to focus on what the key "outside
markets" are doing. Traders will closely scrutinize
this morning's weekly USDA export sales data. At
present, weather patterns in the U.S. Corn Belt are
beneficial for crops, which is a bearish
fundamental in the grains.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Tuesday, May 25-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are sharply lower U.S. stock index and crude oil
prices, and a sharply higher U.S. dollar index.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Risk aversion is the play of the day in the
markets, as traders are seeking out U.S. Treasuries
and the U.S. dollar as a safe haven amid mounting
concern about the European Union's debt problems
and new tensions between North Korea and South
Korea. This issue just will not go away and could
turn into a worldwide credit crisis contagion. The
U.S. stock indexes hit fresh seven-month lows today
while crude oil futures prices dropped below $68.00
a barrel. The keener risk aversion in the
marketplace today is also hitting commodity futures
hard.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are sharply lower in early
morning trading today, and hit fresh multi-month
lows. The U.S. stock index futures bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage and are
gaining fresh downside near-term momentum.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at the overnight low of 1,036.60
and then at 1,025.00. Sell stops likely reside just
under those levels. Upside resistance for active
traders today is located at 1,050.00 and then at
1,060.00. Buy stops are likely located just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
3.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,056.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 1,785.00 and then at 1,800.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 1,761.50 and then at 1,750.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,789.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 9,800 and then more stops just below
support at 9,750. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 9,900 and then at
9,950. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,036

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are sharply
higher in early trading today, on a flight to
quality into U.S. government debt. Prices hit fresh
contract highs overnight. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage as near-term
uptrends are firmly in place on the daily charts.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight contract high of 126 15/32 and then at
127 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 125
16/32 and then at 125 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 7.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 124 30/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 15/32--lifetime high
125 30/32--second pivot point resistance
125 13/32--previous day's high
125 11/32--first pivot point resistance
124 25/32--pivot point
124 23/32--previous day's close
124 8/32--previous day's low
124 6/32--first pivot point support
124 3/32--4-day moving average
123 20/32--second pivot point support
122 19/32--9-day moving average
121 16/32--18-day moving average
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
117 6/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at the overnight high of
122.14.5 and then at 122.24.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders
are likely located just below support at the
overnight low of 121.12.5 and then at 121.00.0.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 121.16.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

122 14/32--lifetime high
121 29/32--second pivot point resistance
121 20/32--first pivot point resistance
121 19/32--previous day's high
121 12/32--previous day's close
121 11/32--pivot point
121 2/32--first pivot point support
121 1/32--previous day's low
120 31/32--4-day moving average
120 25/32--second pivot point support
120 4/32--9-day moving average
119 11/32--18-day moving average
117 31/32--previous month's high
116 27/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is sharply higher in
early trading today and trading near the recent 12-
month high high. Dollar index bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at last week's high of 87.62
then at 88.00. Shorter-term support is seen at
87.00 and then at the overnight low of 86.56.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 86.74. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
8.0

The June Euro is sharply lower in early electronic
trading and near the recent low. Bears remain in
firm overall technical command. Euro finds sell
stop orders are likely located just below technical
support at the overnight low of 1.2181 and then at
last week's low of 1.2140. Shorter-term technical
resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2250 and then
at 1.2300. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.2339. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 2.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are near steady in early
dealings today. Safe-haven buying is limiting the
downside in crude today. Deflationary concerns are
starting to weigh on gold, which is limiting the
upside. Gold bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. For June gold, shorter-term
technical resistance is seen at Monday's high of
$1,197.30 and then at $1,200.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at the overnight low of
$1,185.20 and then at 1,180.00. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,192.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading sharply lower today
and hit a fresh 10-month low. Bears still have
solid downside near-term technical momentum. In
July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $68.00 and then at $69.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $67.00
and then at $66.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $68.66. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 2.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading amid
bearishly postured "outside markets" that include a
stronger U.S. dollar index and sharply lower stock
index and crude oil prices. Grain traders will
continue to focus on what the key "outside markets"
are doing. If crude oil continues to tumble, the
upside for all the grains will be limited in the
coming weeks, barring any serious weather scare in
the Corn Belt. At present, weather patterns in the
U.S. Corn Belt are presently beneficial for crops,
which is a bearish fundamental in the grains

Friday, May 21, 2010

Friday, May 21-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are once again lower U.S. stock index, gold and crude
oil futures prices, while the U.S. dollar index is
stronger.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Crude oil continues to be hammered lower and hit a
fresh 10-month low Thursday. Have you also looked
at a copper or lumber chart lately? Steep sell offs
have occurred in those markets, too. I don’t
consider myself to be an alarmist, but what I'm
seeing in the markets at present are early clues of
a "double-dip" world economic recession, and maybe
even deflationary price conditions. That would be a
very bearish scenario for commodity and stock
markets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are lower again in early
morning trading today. The U.S. stock index futures
bears now have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and are gaining fresh downside
near-term momentum. Prices today are poised to take
out the spike low seen earlier this month, as well
as post bearish weekly low closes today.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at the May spike low of 1,060.00 and then
at 1,050.00. Sell stops likely reside just under
those levels. Upside resistance for active traders
today is located at the overnight high of 1,070.00
and then at the overnight high of 1,080.40. Buy
stops are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,090.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 1,800.00 and then at the overnight high
of 1,817.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the May spike low of 1,768.50 and then
at 1,760.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,841.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 9,900 and then more stops just below
support at 9,850. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,000 and then at
10,056. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,277

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher
in early trading today and hit a fresh 14-month
high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage as neaer-term uptrends are
in place on the daily charts.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 125 16/32 and then at 126
even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 125
even and then at 124 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 7.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 123 4/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
126 7/32--second pivot point resistance
125 14/32--first pivot point resistance
124 25/32--previous day's high
124 21/32--previous day's close
124 --pivot point
123 7/32--first pivot point support
122 28/32--4-day moving average
122 18/32--previous day's low
121 25/32--second pivot point support
121 25/32--9-day moving average
120 25/32--18-day moving average
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
117 --100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
121.21.5 and then at 122.00.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders
are likely located just below support at the
overnight low of 120.30.0 and then at 120.16.0.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 120.15.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

122 12/32--second pivot point resistance
121 26/32--first pivot point resistance
121 16/32--previous day's high
121 9/32--previous day's close
121 1/32--lifetime high
120 31/32--pivot point
120 13/32--first pivot point support
120 11/32--4-day moving average
120 3/32--previous day's low
119 20/32--9-day moving average
119 18/32--second pivot point support
118 30/32--18-day moving average
117 31/32--previous month's high
116 23/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early
trading today. Dollar index bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.20
then at 86.50. Shorter-term support is seen at
85.50 and then at the overnight low of 85.32.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 85.90. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
6.0

The June Euro is weaker in early electronic
trading. Bears remain in firm overall technical
command. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at the
overnight low of 1.2465 and then at 1.2400.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at 1.2600 and then at the overnight high of
1.2674. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.2506. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are lower again in early
dealings today, on more profit-taking pressure from
recent gains. Deflationary concerns are also
starting to weigh on gold. Gold bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage, but are
fading and need to show fresh power soon. For June
gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
overnight high of $1,185.70 and then at $1,190.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Sell stops likely reside just below support at
$1,170.00 and then at the overnight low of
1,166.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,172.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower again today and
are hovering near a 10-month low. Bears have solid
downside near-term technical momentum. In July
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $70.00 and then at the overnight high
of $70.73. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at Thursday's low of $68.85 and then at
$68.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $70.77. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

Prices were weaker in overnight trading amid
bearishly postured "outside markets" that include a
firmer U.S. dollar index and lower stock index and
crude oil prices. Grain traders will continue to
focus on what the key "outside markets" are doing.
If you are a grain market bull, here is a
compelling observation: Grain futures held up very
well Thursday--when the stock market was tanking
and crude oil prices were at one time down over
$4.00 a barrel. This is one clue that the downside
in the grains is limited at present lower price
levels. Weather patterns in the U.S. Corn Belt are
presently beneficial for crops, which is a bearish
fundamental in the grains.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Thursday, May 20-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today
is lower U.S. stock index, gold crude oil futures prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Gold futures are under selling pressure again this
morning as more profit taking is featured after
prices last week hit a fresh all-time record high.
No serious chart damage has been inflicted in gold,
yet. A solid push in prices below the last
"reaction low" on the daily bar chart, which is
located at the May low of $1,156.20, would negate
the price uptrend on the daily chart and would
produce near-term technical damage to suggest a
near-term market top is in place.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are lower again in early
morning trading today. The U.S. stock index futures
bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage and are gaining fresh downside near-term
momentum.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at 1,091.00 and then at 1,080.00. Sell
stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside
resistance for active traders today is located at
the overnight high of 1,115.60 and then at
1,125.00. Buy stops are likely located just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,104.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 1,860.00 and then at the overnight high
of 1,874.25. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at 1,840.00 and then at 1,830.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,850.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at Wednesday's low of 10,305 and then more
stops just below support at 10,250. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
10,375 and then at 10,400. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,277

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer
in early trading today. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage as neaer-term
uptrends are in place on the daily charts.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday's
high of 123 17/32 and then at 124 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 123 even and then at the
overnight low of 122 18/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 122 21/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
123 31/32--second pivot point resistance
123 17/32--previous day's high
123 9/32--first pivot point resistance
122 27/32--pivot point
122 19/32--previous day's close
122 13/32--previous day's low
122 5/32--first pivot point support
121 23/32--second pivot point support
121 15/32--4-day moving average
121 15/32--9-day moving average
120 11/32--18-day moving average
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
116 29/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of
120.22.0 and then at the May high of 121.01.5.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Sell stop orders are likely located just
below support at the overnight low of 120.03.5 and
then at 120.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 120.01.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

121 1/32--lifetime high
120 31/32--second pivot point resistance
120 22/32--previous day's high
120 20/32--first pivot point resistance
120 10/32--pivot point
120 8/32--previous day's close
120 1/32--previous day's low
119 31/32--first pivot point support
119 30/32--4-day moving average
119 21/32--second pivot point support
119 15/32--9-day moving average
118 21/32--18-day moving average
117 31/32--previous month's high
116 21/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early
trading today. Dollar index bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 87.00nd then at 87.25.
Shorter-term support is seen at 86.50 and then at
the overnight low of 86.28. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.39.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

The June Euro is weaker in early electronic
trading. Bears remain in firm overall technical
command. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at 1.2300 and
then at 1.2250. Shorter-term technical resistance
for the Euro is seen at 1.2400 and then at the
overnight high of 1.2440. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the
Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2384.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are lower again in early
dealings today, on more profit-taking pressure from
recent gains. Gold bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage, but are fading and
need to show fresh power soon. For June gold,
shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
$1,190.00 and then at $1,200.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at the overnight low of
$1,179.00 and then at 1,175.00. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,192.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower again today and
hit a fresh eight-month low overnight. Bears have
downside near-term technical momentum. In July
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $72.00 and then at $72.50. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $70.00 and then at $69.00. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$73.46. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed in overnight trading amid
bearishly postured "outside markets" that include a
firmer U.S. dollar index and lower stock index and
crude oil prices. Grain traders will continue to
focus on what the key "outside markets" are doing.
Weather patterns in the U.S. Corn Belt are
presently beneficial for crops, which is a bearish
fundamental in the grains. Traders will closely
scrutinize this morning's USDA weekly export sales
report.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Wednesday, May 19-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today
is lower U.S. stock index and crude oil futures prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Crude oil futures continue to trend lower and today
dipped below $68.00 a barrel. That bearish pennant
pattern on the daily bar chart, which I pointed out
to you last week and which has since seen a
downside "breakout," does have a downside target of
$61.00 a barrel. At the time of the formation of
the pennant pattern, the $61.00 downside target I
mentioned seemed a bit of a stretch. As I write
this report today, the $61.00 level in crude now
seems a likelihood sometime this summer. For those
of you who do summertime vacations, the drop in
crude oil prices came at just the right time, as
gasoline prices at the pump are starting to drop.
However, for those of you who are commodity market
bulls, the big drop in crude oil prices is spilling
over into some selling pressure in other raw
commodity markets, and it could be a rough summer
for the commodity sector, in general.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning
trading today, on follow-through selling pressure
from losses seen Tuesday. The U.S. stock index
futures bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at 1,100.00 and then at 1,091.00. Sell
stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside
resistance for active traders today is located at
the overnight high of 1,117.90 and then at
1,125.00. Buy stops are likely located just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,104.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 1,885.75 and then
at 1,900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 1,865.50 and then
at 1,850.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,876.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at this week's low of 10,415 and then more
stops just below support at 10,400. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
10,450 and then at 10,500. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,411

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer
in early trading today. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage as neaer-term
uptrends are in place on the daily charts.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 123 8/32 and then at the
overnight high of 123 17/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 122
26/32 and then at 122 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 122 21/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
124 1/32--second pivot point resistance
123 14/32--first pivot point resistance
122 29/32--previous day's high
122 28/32--previous day's close
122 11/32--pivot point
121 24/32--first pivot point support
121 23/32--4-day moving average
121 18/32--9-day moving average
121 7/32--previous day's low
120 21/32--second pivot point support
120 1/32--18-day moving average
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
116 25/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at the overnight high of
120.22.0 and then at the May high of 121.01.5.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Sell stop orders are likely located just
below support at the overnight low of 120.05.5 and
then at 120.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 120.01.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

121 1/32--lifetime high
121 1/32--second pivot point resistance
120 21/32--first pivot point resistance
120 11/32--previous day's high
120 10/32--previous day's close
120 --pivot point
119 20/32--first pivot point support
119 20/32--4-day moving average
119 14/32--9-day moving average
119 10/32--previous day's low
118 31/32--second pivot point support
118 15/32--18-day moving average
117 31/32--previous month's high
116 18/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early
trading today and hit another 12-month high
overnight. Dollar index bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 87.62
and then at 87.75. Shorter-term support is seen at
87.00 and then at 86.75. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 85.86.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

The June Euro is near steady in early electronic
trading. Prices hit a fresh four-year low
overnight. Bears remain in firm overall technical
command. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at the
overnight low of 1.2140 and then at 1.2100.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at 1.2250 and then at 1.2300. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics
for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
1.2507. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are lower again in early
dealings today, on more profit-taking pressure from
recent gains. Gold bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. For June gold,
shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
$1,220.00 and then at the overnight high of
$1,228.20. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support
at $1,200.00 and then at 1,190.00. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$1,203.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower early today and
hit a fresh 10-month low overnight. Bears have
downside near-term technical momentum. In June
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $69.00 and then at $70.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $67.90 and then at $67.50. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$70.24. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were weaker in overnight trading amid
bearishly postured "outside markets" that include a
firmer U.S. dollar index and lower stock index and
crude oil prices. Grain traders will continue to
focus on what the key "outside markets" are doing.
Weather patterns in the U.S. Corn Belt are
presently beneficial for crops, which is a bearish
fundamental in the grains.

Monday, May 17, 2010

Monday, May 17-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are crude oil prices that dropped below $70.00 a
barrel and a higher U.S. dollar index.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Crude oil futures overnight hit a fresh eight-month
low and dropped below the psychological support
level of $70.00 a barrel. Recent price action has
produced a downside "breakout" from a bearish
pennant pattern on the daily bar chart. The
measuring implications from the bearish pennant on
the daily chart for June crude oil futures show a
downside price objective of around $61.00 a
barrel.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today, on short covering after producing
technically bearish weekly low closes on Friday.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage and the indexes.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at 1,130.00 and then at the
overnight low of 1,120.60. Sell stops likely reside
just under those levels. Upside resistance for
active traders today is located at 1,150.00 and
then at 1,160.00. Buy stops are likely located just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,130.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 1,925.00 and then at
1,935.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen
at 1,900.00 and then at the overnight low of
1,885.50. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,904.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,600 and then more stops just below
support at 10,550. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,650 and then at
Friday's high of 10,710. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,707

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker
in early trading today. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage after prices
produced bullish weekly high closes on Friday.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 122 even and then at 122
16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 121 18/32 and then at 121 even.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 121 15/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
123 19/32--second pivot point resistance
122 26/32--first pivot point resistance
122 18/32--previous day's high
122 1/32--previous day's close
121 25/32--pivot point
121 5/32--9-day moving average
121 --first pivot point support
120 29/32--4-day moving average
120 24/32--previous day's low
119 31/32--second pivot point support
119 16/32--18-day moving average
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
116 20/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 120.00.0 and then at the
overnight high of 120.08.5. Shorter-term moving
averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop
orders are likely located just below support at
119.16.0 and then at 119.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119.23.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

121 1/32--lifetime high
120 20/32--second pivot point resistance
120 6/32--first pivot point resistance
120 1/32--previous day's high
119 24/32--previous day's close
119 19/32--pivot point
119 5/32--first pivot point support
119 3/32--4-day moving average
119 3/32--9-day moving average
119 --previous day's low
118 18/32--second pivot point support
118 4/32--18-day moving average
117 31/32--previous month's high
116 15/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is higher in early
trading today, and hit another fresh 12-month high
overnight. Dollar index bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 87.00 and then at the
overnight contract high of 87.21. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 86.33 and
then at 86.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 85.60. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 7.0

The June Euro is weaker in early electronic trading
and hit another fresh 14-month low overnight. Bears
remain in firm overall technical command. Euro
finds sell stop orders are likely located just
below technical support at 1.2300 and then at the
overnight low of 1.2235. Shorter-term technical
resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2400 and then
at 1.2450. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.2565. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are firmer in early dealings
today. Gold bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage as prices hover near
last week's record high. For June gold, shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at $1,235.00 and
then at the overnight high of $1,242.80. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops
likely reside just below support at the overnight
low of $1,225.40 and then at Friday's low of
1,217.60. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,225.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading near steady early
today after hitting a fresh eight-month low
overnight. A bearish pennant pattern has formed and
seen a downside breakout on the daily bar chart.
Bears have downside near-term technical momentum.
In June crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $72.50 and then at $73.00. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at
$71.00 and then at $70.00. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $73.17.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading.
Grain market bears have gained some near-term
downside technical momentum recently. Grain traders
will continue to focus on what the key "outside
markets" are doing. This morning, the outside
markets are in a neutral posture, as the U.S.
dollar index is higher, while the stock indexes are
higher and crude oil futures are near unchanged.
Weather patterns in the U.S. Corn Belt are
presently benign for the crops.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Wednesday, May 12--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today
is solidly higher gold prices that set a new all-time
record high overnight.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Now that gold has set a new all-time high of
$1,245.40 overnight, look for bigger price moves,
both on the upside and on the downside, in the
coming days and weeks. The next major upside price
objective for the bulls is the $1,500.00 level.--
Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today, as the indexes try to consolidate.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical support comes in at the overnight low of
1,140.00 and then at 1,130.00. Sell stops likely
reside just under those levels. Upside resistance
for active traders today is located at this week's
high of 1,168.50 and then at 1,175.00. Buy stops
are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,130.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at 1,950.00 and
then at this week's high of 1,965.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 1,930.00
and then at the overnight low of 1,919.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,904.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,700 and then more stops just below
support at Tuesday's low of 10,650. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
10,750 and then at 10,800. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,666

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker
in early trading today, on some profit-taking
pressure. I look for more flight-to-quality buying
interest in the near term. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but
is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at 121 even and then at the overnight high of
121 7/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this
week's low of 120 5/32 and then at 120 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 120 24/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
122 12/32--second pivot point resistance
121 24/32--previous day's high
121 23/32--4-day moving average
121 18/32--first pivot point resistance
120 29/32--pivot point
120 23/32--previous day's close
120 12/32--9-day moving average
120 9/32--previous day's low
120 3/32--first pivot point support
119 14/32--second pivot point support
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
118 25/32--18-day moving average
116 16/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at 119.08.0 and then at
the overnight high of 119.13.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but
is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located
just below support at Tuesday's low of 118.22.5 and
then at this week's low of 118.12.0. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118.27.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

121 1/32--lifetime high
119 31/32--second pivot point resistance
119 18/32--previous day's high
119 16/32--first pivot point resistance
119 13/32--4-day moving average
119 3/32--pivot point
119 1/32--previous day's close
118 22/32--previous day's low
118 20/32--first pivot point support
118 17/32--9-day moving average
118 7/32--second pivot point support
117 31/32--previous month's high
117 24/32--18-day moving average
116 12/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early
trading today. Dollar index bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 85.03
and then at last week's high of 85.46. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 84.33 and
then at 84.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 84.54. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.0

The June Euro is weaker in early electronic
trading. Bears remain in firm overall technical
command. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at 1.2650 and
then at the overnight low of 1.2607. Shorter-term
technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the
overnight high of 1.2742 and then at 1.2800. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow
stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1.2738. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
4.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are sharply higher again in
early dealings today, and hit a fresh all-time
record high overnight. Gold bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Now, look
for bigger daily price moves in gold. For June
gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
the overnight record high of $1,245.40 and then at
$1,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support
at $1,230.00 and then at the overnight low of
$1,227.20. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,222.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 9.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading near unchanged early
today. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the
daily bar chart. Bears have still have some
downside near-term technical momentum. In June
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $77.00 and then at $77.50. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $76.00
and then at the overnight low of $75.42. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$76.76. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly higher in overnight trading.
Corn bulls have regained fresh upside near-term
technical momentum and are leading renewed fund
buying interest in the grains. Corn is feeling the
bullish effects of the positive USDA report for
corn issued Tuesday morning.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Tuesday, May 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are solidly lower U.S. stock index futures prices and
solid gains in the U.S. dollar index.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The markets' euphoria over the European Union-IMF
rescue package for debt-strapped EU nations appears
to have lasted just one day, as stock markets are
under selling pressure this morning. Look for
higher volatility in most markets all of this week.
It does appear the bears have quickly regained
downside momentum in the stock indexes and in many
commodity markets, including crude oil. The one
commodity market that is shining is gold, which is
solidly higher early today, on its safe-haven asset
status.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are solidly lower in early
morning trading today. Bears have the near-term
technical advantage to suggest near-term market
tops are in place.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical support comes in at 1,130.00 and then at
Monday's low of 1,122.10. Sell stops likely reside
just under those levels. Upside resistance for
active traders today is located at 1,150.00 and
then at Monday's high of 1,162.00. Buy stops are
likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 3.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,130.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at 1,925.00 and
then at Monday's high of 1,943.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 1,910.00 and then at
1,900.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
3.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,904.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,600 and then more stops just below
support at 10,535. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,700 and then at
10,750. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is
below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,666

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher
in early trading today, on more flight-to-quality
buying interest as the stock market is under strong
selling pressure again today. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance support lies
at 122 even and then at 122 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 121 16/32 and then at 121
even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 122 10/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
122 7/32--second pivot point resistance
121 22/32--4-day moving average
121 17/32--previous day's high
121 16/32--first pivot point resistance
120 27/32--pivot point
120 26/32--previous day's close
120 5/32--previous day's low
120 4/32--first pivot point support
120 1/32--9-day moving average
119 15/32--second pivot point support
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
118 17/32--18-day moving average
116 15/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 119.24.0 and then at
120.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located
just below support at 119.08.0 and then at
119.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119.23.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

121 1/32--lifetime high
119 26/32--second pivot point resistance
119 11/32--first pivot point resistance
119 10/32--previous day's high
119 10/32--4-day moving average
118 29/32--previous day's close
118 28/32--pivot point
118 13/32--first pivot point support
118 12/32--previous day's low
118 11/32--9-day moving average
117 31/32--previous month's high
117 30/32--second pivot point support
117 19/32--18-day moving average
116 11/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in
early trading today, on a resumption of flight-to-
quality buying amid the EU debt crisis that is
pummeling the Euro currency. Dollar index bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 85.00 and then
at last week's high of 85.46. Shorter-term support
is seen at 84.50 and then at the overnight low of
84.33. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 84.54. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.0

The June Euro is solidly lower in early electronic
trading. Bears remain in firm overall technical
command. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at 1.2650 and
then at 1.2600. Shorter-term technical resistance
for the Euro is seen at 1.2700 and then at 1.2750.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early
today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.2838. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 3.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are sharply higher in early
dealings today, and hit a fresh five-month high
overnight. Gold bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls are now within
striking distance of the all-time high of
$1,227.50, basis nearby futures. For June gold,
shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
$1,220.00 and then at $1,227.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at $1,210.00 and then at
$1,200.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,195.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today. Bears have
downside near-term technical momentum. In June
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $76.00 and then at $77.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $75.00
and then at last week's low of $74.51. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$76.76. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading, amid a
higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil and
U.S. stock index futures prices. Grain bulls are
now fading and need to show fresh power soon.
Traders will closely scrutinize this morning's
monthly USDA supply and demand report.

Monday, May 10, 2010

Monday, May 10--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are sharply higher U.S. stock index futures prices
and a sharply lower U.S. dollar index.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The major news to start the week is a big European
Union/IMF financial aid package announced for
Greece and possibly the other EU countries that are
struggling with their sovereign debt. The aid
package was greeted very favorably by investors
worldwide. World stock markets and the Euro
currency rallied sharply. The U.S. Federal Reserve
even chipped in some support for the aid package
for the EU. Now, the important question becomes:
Will the markets continue to embrace the EU bailout
package? Or, will investors quickly discount the
bailout package and realize it's still not enough
to fix all that needs fixing in the EU's financial
system. Recent bailout plan announcements have also
been met with positive investor reactions, but only
for a short period of time before the worries again
surfaced. How many of the key markets finish this
week's trading action on Friday (near the weekly
high, or near the weekly low) will provide solid
clues on whether the EU debt crisis can finally be
put to bed, from a worldwide markets perspective.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are sharply higher in early
morning trading today, on a big corrective bounce
following strong losses recorded last week. Bears
still have some technical signals on their side to
suggest near-term market tops are in place.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at 1,150.00 and then at 1,140.00.
Sell stops likely reside just under those levels.
Upside resistance for active traders today is
located at the overnight high of 1,162.00 and then
at 1,170.00. Buy stops are likely located just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 7.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,148.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of
1,938.50 and then at 1,950.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 1,920.00 and then at
1,910.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
7.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,935.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,700 and then more stops just below
support at 10,650. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,750 and then at
10,800. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is
below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,666

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are solidly
lower in early trading today, on a profit-taking
pullback from big gains last week, and amid less
investor fear in the marketplace following the EU
bailout package. No serious chart damage has
occurred Monday and the bulls still have uptrends
in place on the daily bar charts.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance support lies
at 121 even and then at the overnight high of 121
17/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 120 7/32 and then at 120 even.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 120 24/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
125 8/32--second pivot point resistance
124 4/32--previous day's high
123 20/32--first pivot point resistance
122 16/32--pivot point
122 --previous day's close
121 15/32--4-day moving average
121 12/32--previous day's low
120 28/32--first pivot point support
119 24/32--9-day moving average
119 24/32--second pivot point support
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
118 8/32--18-day moving average
116 13/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 118.24.0 and then at
119.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located
just below support at the overnight low of 118.12.0
and then at 118.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118.26.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

121 17/32--second pivot point resistance
121 1/32--lifetime high
120 21/32--previous day's high
120 19/32--first pivot point resistance
119 24/32--pivot point
119 22/32--previous day's close
119 3/32--4-day moving average
118 28/32--previous day's low
118 26/32--first pivot point support
118 7/32--9-day moving average
117 31/32--previous month's high
117 31/32--second pivot point support
117 15/32--18-day moving average
116 10/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is sharply lower in
early trading today, on a big corrective pullback
from recent strong gains, and due to the EU weekend
aid package announcement. No serious chart damage
has occurred Monday. Bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bearish early today. The
dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 83.50 and then at 84.00. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 83.07 and
then at 82.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 83.20. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0

The June Euro is sharply higher in early electronic
trading, on a big corrective, short-covering bounce
from recent selling pressure. Prices hit a fresh
14-month low last Thursday. Bears remain in overall
full overall technical command. Euro finds sell
stop orders are likely located just below technical
support at 1.2950 and then at 1.2900. Shorter-term
technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3050
and then at 1.3100. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro
are bullish early today. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3033.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

GOLD

Comex gold futures are solidly lower in early
dealings today, on profit-taking pressure from
recent strong gains that saw prices push above
$1,200 last week and hit a fresh five-month high.
Gold bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. No chart damage has occurred
with Monday's losses. For June gold, shorter-term
technical resistance is seen at $1,200.00 and then
at the overnight high of $1,207.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops
likely reside just below support at the overnight
low of $1,184.40 and then at $1,175.00. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$1,185.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are sharply higher early today, on
a big corrective bounce after prices plunged to a
fresh 11-week low last Thursday. Bears still have
some downside near-term technical momentum. In June
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $78.51 and then
at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $77.50 and then at $77.00. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$79.35. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, amid a
sharply lower U.S. dollar index and sharply higher
crude oil and U.S. stock index futures prices. The
grains are also getting a boost from the EU aid
package announcement. Soybean bulls are fading a
bit, while corn and wheat bulls are showing
impressive resilience and are working to keep
gentle uptrends in place on the daily charts.

Friday, May 7, 2010

Friday, May 7--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher U.S. stock
index futures prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Traders appear to have calmed down a bit after
Thursday's wild trading action in many markets.
With the U.S. dollar seeing a downside correction
and the stock indexes seeing an upside correction,
that does suggest traders over-reacted to the
rioting in Athens that played out on television
Thursday. Make no mistake, however. The European
Union sovereign debt crisis is not over. However,
it appears the strongest one-day market reactions
to the crisis likely did occur on Thursday. Still,
look for next week's trader focus to once again be
on latest developments coming out of the European
Union.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today, on a corrective bounce following
strong losses on Thursday. Bears have gained solid
downside near-term technical momentum this week, to
strongly suggest near-term market tops are in
place.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at the overnight low of 1,113.00
and then at 1,100.00. Sell stops likely reside just
under those levels. Upside resistance for active
traders today is located at the overnight high of
1,134.30 and then at 1,140.00. Buy stops are likely
located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,113.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 1,910.00 and then at
1,920.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 1,872.75 and then at
1,860.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,889.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,450 and then more stops just below
support at 10,400. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at Wednesday's high of
10,550 and then at 10,600. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,486

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower
in early trading today, on a profit-taking pullback
from big gains on Thursday. Bulls still have upside
near-term technical momentum amid the flight to
quality into bonds and notes.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance support lies
at 122 even and then at 122 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 121 16/32 and then at 121
even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 121 14/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
126 29/32--second pivot point resistance
124 28/32--first pivot point resistance
124 16/32--previous day's high
122 28/32--previous day's close
122 16/32--pivot point
120 17/32--4-day moving average
120 15/32--first pivot point support
120 3/32--previous day's low
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
119 4/32--9-day moving average
118 3/32--second pivot point support
117 30/32--18-day moving average
116 11/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 119.16.0 and then at the
overnight high of 120.02.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at 119.00.0 and then at
118.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118.27.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

122 12/32--second pivot point resistance
121 3/32--first pivot point resistance
121 1/32--lifetime high
121 1/32--previous day's high
119 25/32--previous day's close
119 23/32--pivot point
118 17/32--4-day moving average
118 14/32--first pivot point support
118 12/32--previous day's low
117 31/32--previous month's high
117 27/32--9-day moving average
117 9/32--18-day moving average
117 2/32--second pivot point support
116 9/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early
trading today, on a modest corrective pullback from
recent strong gains. Prices Thursday hit a fresh
contract and 12-month high. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 85.00 and then at
Thursday's contract high of 85.46. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 84.51 and
then at 84.06. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 84.09. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.5

The June Euro is higher in early electronic
trading, on a corrective bounce from recent selling
pressure. Prices hit a fresh 14-month low on
Thursday. Bears remain in full overall technical
command. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at 1.2700 and
then at 1.2650. Shorter-term technical resistance
for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of
1.2803 and then at Thursday's high of 1.2859. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow
stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1.2833. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.5

GOLD

Comex gold futures are near steady in early
dealings today, as the market pauses from recent
strong gains that saw prices push above $1,200 on
Thursday and hit a fresh five-month high. Gold
bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. For June gold, shorter-term
technical resistance is seen at $1,200.00 and then
at Thursday's high of $1,211.90. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at the overnight low of
$1,195.50 and then at $1,190.00. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,191.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today, on a
corrective bounce after prices plunged to a fresh
11-week low Thursday. Bears have gained solid
downside near-term technical momentum this week. In
June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $78.19 and then
at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $76.67 and then at
$76.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $76.78. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading.
Traders are spooked by the financial markets amid
the European Union debt crisis. "When in doubt, get
out" is the mantra of most traders during times of
heightened uncertainty. Soybean bulls are fading,
while corn and wheat bulls are hanging tough amid
the turmoil in many markets. Look for an active
trading day today in the grains.