Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Thursday, May 6--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are a firmer U.S. dollar index and higher gold
futures prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

A major question among many traders today is this:
Have they already, or when will the markets factor
into their price structures the European Union's
sovereign debt problems? My bias is, not yet. One
market that suggests the crisis in Europe could
still worsen is gold. Gold is rallying today
despite the U.S. dollar index posting a very strong
rally this week. In the past, gold and the U.S.
dollar index have traded in a pronounced inverse
relationship.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today, on a corrective bounce following
losses on Wednesday. Bears have gained downside
near-term technical momentum this week, to suggest
near-term market tops are in place.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical support comes in at Wednesday's low of
1,155.00 and then at 1,150.00. Sell stops likely
reside just under those levels. Upside resistance
for active traders today is located at Wednesday's
high of 1,173.00 and then at 1,180.00. Buy stops
are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,179.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at Wednesday's high
of 1,972.00 and then at 1,980.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
1,950.00 and then at Wednesday's low of 1,935.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,981.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,800 and then more stops just below
support at Wednesday's low of 10,775. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
Wednesday's high of 10,900 and then at 10,950.
Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below
the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,945

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker
in early trading today, on a profit-taking pullback
from recent strong gains. Bulls still have upside
near-term technical momentum amid the flight to
quality into bonds and notes.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance support lies
at the overnight high of 120 24/32 and then at 121
even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 120 4/32 and then at 120 even.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119 21/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
122 3/32--second pivot point resistance
121 14/32--previous day's high
121 11/32--first pivot point resistance
120 21/32--pivot point
120 18/32--previous day's close
120 --previous day's low
119 29/32--first pivot point support
119 19/32--4-day moving average
119 7/32--second pivot point support
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
118 15/32--9-day moving average
117 18/32--18-day moving average
116 9/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
118.29.0 and then at 119.00.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at the overnight low of
118.12.0 and then at 118.02.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118.03.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
119 22/32--second pivot point resistance
119 7/32--first pivot point resistance
119 4/32--previous day's high
118 23/32--previous day's close
118 20/32--pivot point
118 5/32--first pivot point support
118 2/32--4-day moving average
118 2/32--previous day's low
117 31/32--previous month's high
117 18/32--second pivot point support
117 16/32--9-day moving average
117 3/32--18-day moving average
116 8/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer again in early
trading today and hit another fresh contract and
12-month high overnight. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 84.66
and then at 85.00. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 84.06 and then at 83.65.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 83.55. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
7.0

The June Euro is lower again in early electronic
trading. Prices hit another fresh 12-month low
overnight. Bears remain in full overall technical
command. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at 1.2700 and
then at 1.2650. Shorter-term technical resistance
for the Euro is seen at 1.2800 and then at today's
high of 1.2859. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are
bearish early today. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2970.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are higher in early dealings
today. Gold bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. For June gold, shorter-term
technical resistance is seen at this week's high of
$1,192.80 and then at $1,200.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at $1,180.00 and then at
the overnight low of $1,173.00. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,179.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today and
hit a fresh 11-week low overnight. Bears have
gained solid downside near-term technical momentum
this week. In June crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $81.00 and then at
$82.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $78.87 and then at
$78.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $81.99. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were narrowly mixed in overnight trading.
The key "outside markets" are in a neutral posture
for the grains early today, as the U.S. dollar
index is stronger, but crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes are steady to firmer. Corn and soybeans are
feeling pressure from a very strong planting pace
in the U.S. Traders will examine this morning's
weekly USDA export sales report. However, a major
focus of trader attention will continue to be how
the outside markets are reacting to the European
Union's sovereign debt crisis.

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