Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Wednesday, May 19-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today
is lower U.S. stock index and crude oil futures prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Crude oil futures continue to trend lower and today
dipped below $68.00 a barrel. That bearish pennant
pattern on the daily bar chart, which I pointed out
to you last week and which has since seen a
downside "breakout," does have a downside target of
$61.00 a barrel. At the time of the formation of
the pennant pattern, the $61.00 downside target I
mentioned seemed a bit of a stretch. As I write
this report today, the $61.00 level in crude now
seems a likelihood sometime this summer. For those
of you who do summertime vacations, the drop in
crude oil prices came at just the right time, as
gasoline prices at the pump are starting to drop.
However, for those of you who are commodity market
bulls, the big drop in crude oil prices is spilling
over into some selling pressure in other raw
commodity markets, and it could be a rough summer
for the commodity sector, in general.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning
trading today, on follow-through selling pressure
from losses seen Tuesday. The U.S. stock index
futures bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at 1,100.00 and then at 1,091.00. Sell
stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside
resistance for active traders today is located at
the overnight high of 1,117.90 and then at
1,125.00. Buy stops are likely located just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,104.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 1,885.75 and then
at 1,900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 1,865.50 and then
at 1,850.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,876.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at this week's low of 10,415 and then more
stops just below support at 10,400. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
10,450 and then at 10,500. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,411

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer
in early trading today. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage as neaer-term
uptrends are in place on the daily charts.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 123 8/32 and then at the
overnight high of 123 17/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 122
26/32 and then at 122 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 122 21/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
124 1/32--second pivot point resistance
123 14/32--first pivot point resistance
122 29/32--previous day's high
122 28/32--previous day's close
122 11/32--pivot point
121 24/32--first pivot point support
121 23/32--4-day moving average
121 18/32--9-day moving average
121 7/32--previous day's low
120 21/32--second pivot point support
120 1/32--18-day moving average
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
116 25/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at the overnight high of
120.22.0 and then at the May high of 121.01.5.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Sell stop orders are likely located just
below support at the overnight low of 120.05.5 and
then at 120.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 120.01.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

121 1/32--lifetime high
121 1/32--second pivot point resistance
120 21/32--first pivot point resistance
120 11/32--previous day's high
120 10/32--previous day's close
120 --pivot point
119 20/32--first pivot point support
119 20/32--4-day moving average
119 14/32--9-day moving average
119 10/32--previous day's low
118 31/32--second pivot point support
118 15/32--18-day moving average
117 31/32--previous month's high
116 18/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early
trading today and hit another 12-month high
overnight. Dollar index bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 87.62
and then at 87.75. Shorter-term support is seen at
87.00 and then at 86.75. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 85.86.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

The June Euro is near steady in early electronic
trading. Prices hit a fresh four-year low
overnight. Bears remain in firm overall technical
command. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at the
overnight low of 1.2140 and then at 1.2100.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at 1.2250 and then at 1.2300. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics
for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
1.2507. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are lower again in early
dealings today, on more profit-taking pressure from
recent gains. Gold bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. For June gold,
shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
$1,220.00 and then at the overnight high of
$1,228.20. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support
at $1,200.00 and then at 1,190.00. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$1,203.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower early today and
hit a fresh 10-month low overnight. Bears have
downside near-term technical momentum. In June
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $69.00 and then at $70.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $67.90 and then at $67.50. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$70.24. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were weaker in overnight trading amid
bearishly postured "outside markets" that include a
firmer U.S. dollar index and lower stock index and
crude oil prices. Grain traders will continue to
focus on what the key "outside markets" are doing.
Weather patterns in the U.S. Corn Belt are
presently beneficial for crops, which is a bearish
fundamental in the grains.

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