Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Monday, May 10, 2010

Monday, May 10--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are sharply higher U.S. stock index futures prices
and a sharply lower U.S. dollar index.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The major news to start the week is a big European
Union/IMF financial aid package announced for
Greece and possibly the other EU countries that are
struggling with their sovereign debt. The aid
package was greeted very favorably by investors
worldwide. World stock markets and the Euro
currency rallied sharply. The U.S. Federal Reserve
even chipped in some support for the aid package
for the EU. Now, the important question becomes:
Will the markets continue to embrace the EU bailout
package? Or, will investors quickly discount the
bailout package and realize it's still not enough
to fix all that needs fixing in the EU's financial
system. Recent bailout plan announcements have also
been met with positive investor reactions, but only
for a short period of time before the worries again
surfaced. How many of the key markets finish this
week's trading action on Friday (near the weekly
high, or near the weekly low) will provide solid
clues on whether the EU debt crisis can finally be
put to bed, from a worldwide markets perspective.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are sharply higher in early
morning trading today, on a big corrective bounce
following strong losses recorded last week. Bears
still have some technical signals on their side to
suggest near-term market tops are in place.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at 1,150.00 and then at 1,140.00.
Sell stops likely reside just under those levels.
Upside resistance for active traders today is
located at the overnight high of 1,162.00 and then
at 1,170.00. Buy stops are likely located just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 7.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,148.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of
1,938.50 and then at 1,950.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 1,920.00 and then at
1,910.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
7.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,935.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,700 and then more stops just below
support at 10,650. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,750 and then at
10,800. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is
below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,666

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are solidly
lower in early trading today, on a profit-taking
pullback from big gains last week, and amid less
investor fear in the marketplace following the EU
bailout package. No serious chart damage has
occurred Monday and the bulls still have uptrends
in place on the daily bar charts.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance support lies
at 121 even and then at the overnight high of 121
17/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 120 7/32 and then at 120 even.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 120 24/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
125 8/32--second pivot point resistance
124 4/32--previous day's high
123 20/32--first pivot point resistance
122 16/32--pivot point
122 --previous day's close
121 15/32--4-day moving average
121 12/32--previous day's low
120 28/32--first pivot point support
119 24/32--9-day moving average
119 24/32--second pivot point support
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
118 8/32--18-day moving average
116 13/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 118.24.0 and then at
119.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located
just below support at the overnight low of 118.12.0
and then at 118.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118.26.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

121 17/32--second pivot point resistance
121 1/32--lifetime high
120 21/32--previous day's high
120 19/32--first pivot point resistance
119 24/32--pivot point
119 22/32--previous day's close
119 3/32--4-day moving average
118 28/32--previous day's low
118 26/32--first pivot point support
118 7/32--9-day moving average
117 31/32--previous month's high
117 31/32--second pivot point support
117 15/32--18-day moving average
116 10/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is sharply lower in
early trading today, on a big corrective pullback
from recent strong gains, and due to the EU weekend
aid package announcement. No serious chart damage
has occurred Monday. Bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bearish early today. The
dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 83.50 and then at 84.00. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 83.07 and
then at 82.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 83.20. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0

The June Euro is sharply higher in early electronic
trading, on a big corrective, short-covering bounce
from recent selling pressure. Prices hit a fresh
14-month low last Thursday. Bears remain in overall
full overall technical command. Euro finds sell
stop orders are likely located just below technical
support at 1.2950 and then at 1.2900. Shorter-term
technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3050
and then at 1.3100. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro
are bullish early today. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3033.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

GOLD

Comex gold futures are solidly lower in early
dealings today, on profit-taking pressure from
recent strong gains that saw prices push above
$1,200 last week and hit a fresh five-month high.
Gold bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. No chart damage has occurred
with Monday's losses. For June gold, shorter-term
technical resistance is seen at $1,200.00 and then
at the overnight high of $1,207.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops
likely reside just below support at the overnight
low of $1,184.40 and then at $1,175.00. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$1,185.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are sharply higher early today, on
a big corrective bounce after prices plunged to a
fresh 11-week low last Thursday. Bears still have
some downside near-term technical momentum. In June
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $78.51 and then
at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $77.50 and then at $77.00. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$79.35. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, amid a
sharply lower U.S. dollar index and sharply higher
crude oil and U.S. stock index futures prices. The
grains are also getting a boost from the EU aid
package announcement. Soybean bulls are fading a
bit, while corn and wheat bulls are showing
impressive resilience and are working to keep
gentle uptrends in place on the daily charts.

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