Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Monday, May 17, 2010

Monday, May 17-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are crude oil prices that dropped below $70.00 a
barrel and a higher U.S. dollar index.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Crude oil futures overnight hit a fresh eight-month
low and dropped below the psychological support
level of $70.00 a barrel. Recent price action has
produced a downside "breakout" from a bearish
pennant pattern on the daily bar chart. The
measuring implications from the bearish pennant on
the daily chart for June crude oil futures show a
downside price objective of around $61.00 a
barrel.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today, on short covering after producing
technically bearish weekly low closes on Friday.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage and the indexes.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at 1,130.00 and then at the
overnight low of 1,120.60. Sell stops likely reside
just under those levels. Upside resistance for
active traders today is located at 1,150.00 and
then at 1,160.00. Buy stops are likely located just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,130.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 1,925.00 and then at
1,935.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen
at 1,900.00 and then at the overnight low of
1,885.50. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,904.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,600 and then more stops just below
support at 10,550. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,650 and then at
Friday's high of 10,710. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,707

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker
in early trading today. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage after prices
produced bullish weekly high closes on Friday.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 122 even and then at 122
16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 121 18/32 and then at 121 even.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 121 15/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
123 19/32--second pivot point resistance
122 26/32--first pivot point resistance
122 18/32--previous day's high
122 1/32--previous day's close
121 25/32--pivot point
121 5/32--9-day moving average
121 --first pivot point support
120 29/32--4-day moving average
120 24/32--previous day's low
119 31/32--second pivot point support
119 16/32--18-day moving average
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
116 20/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 120.00.0 and then at the
overnight high of 120.08.5. Shorter-term moving
averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop
orders are likely located just below support at
119.16.0 and then at 119.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119.23.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

121 1/32--lifetime high
120 20/32--second pivot point resistance
120 6/32--first pivot point resistance
120 1/32--previous day's high
119 24/32--previous day's close
119 19/32--pivot point
119 5/32--first pivot point support
119 3/32--4-day moving average
119 3/32--9-day moving average
119 --previous day's low
118 18/32--second pivot point support
118 4/32--18-day moving average
117 31/32--previous month's high
116 15/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is higher in early
trading today, and hit another fresh 12-month high
overnight. Dollar index bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 87.00 and then at the
overnight contract high of 87.21. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 86.33 and
then at 86.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 85.60. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 7.0

The June Euro is weaker in early electronic trading
and hit another fresh 14-month low overnight. Bears
remain in firm overall technical command. Euro
finds sell stop orders are likely located just
below technical support at 1.2300 and then at the
overnight low of 1.2235. Shorter-term technical
resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2400 and then
at 1.2450. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.2565. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are firmer in early dealings
today. Gold bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage as prices hover near
last week's record high. For June gold, shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at $1,235.00 and
then at the overnight high of $1,242.80. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops
likely reside just below support at the overnight
low of $1,225.40 and then at Friday's low of
1,217.60. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,225.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading near steady early
today after hitting a fresh eight-month low
overnight. A bearish pennant pattern has formed and
seen a downside breakout on the daily bar chart.
Bears have downside near-term technical momentum.
In June crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $72.50 and then at $73.00. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at
$71.00 and then at $70.00. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $73.17.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading.
Grain market bears have gained some near-term
downside technical momentum recently. Grain traders
will continue to focus on what the key "outside
markets" are doing. This morning, the outside
markets are in a neutral posture, as the U.S.
dollar index is higher, while the stock indexes are
higher and crude oil futures are near unchanged.
Weather patterns in the U.S. Corn Belt are
presently benign for the crops.

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