Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Friday, May 21, 2010

Friday, May 21-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are once again lower U.S. stock index, gold and crude
oil futures prices, while the U.S. dollar index is
stronger.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Crude oil continues to be hammered lower and hit a
fresh 10-month low Thursday. Have you also looked
at a copper or lumber chart lately? Steep sell offs
have occurred in those markets, too. I don’t
consider myself to be an alarmist, but what I'm
seeing in the markets at present are early clues of
a "double-dip" world economic recession, and maybe
even deflationary price conditions. That would be a
very bearish scenario for commodity and stock
markets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are lower again in early
morning trading today. The U.S. stock index futures
bears now have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and are gaining fresh downside
near-term momentum. Prices today are poised to take
out the spike low seen earlier this month, as well
as post bearish weekly low closes today.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at the May spike low of 1,060.00 and then
at 1,050.00. Sell stops likely reside just under
those levels. Upside resistance for active traders
today is located at the overnight high of 1,070.00
and then at the overnight high of 1,080.40. Buy
stops are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,090.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 1,800.00 and then at the overnight high
of 1,817.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the May spike low of 1,768.50 and then
at 1,760.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,841.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 9,900 and then more stops just below
support at 9,850. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,000 and then at
10,056. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,277

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher
in early trading today and hit a fresh 14-month
high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage as neaer-term uptrends are
in place on the daily charts.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 125 16/32 and then at 126
even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 125
even and then at 124 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 7.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 123 4/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
126 7/32--second pivot point resistance
125 14/32--first pivot point resistance
124 25/32--previous day's high
124 21/32--previous day's close
124 --pivot point
123 7/32--first pivot point support
122 28/32--4-day moving average
122 18/32--previous day's low
121 25/32--second pivot point support
121 25/32--9-day moving average
120 25/32--18-day moving average
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
117 --100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
121.21.5 and then at 122.00.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders
are likely located just below support at the
overnight low of 120.30.0 and then at 120.16.0.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 120.15.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

122 12/32--second pivot point resistance
121 26/32--first pivot point resistance
121 16/32--previous day's high
121 9/32--previous day's close
121 1/32--lifetime high
120 31/32--pivot point
120 13/32--first pivot point support
120 11/32--4-day moving average
120 3/32--previous day's low
119 20/32--9-day moving average
119 18/32--second pivot point support
118 30/32--18-day moving average
117 31/32--previous month's high
116 23/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early
trading today. Dollar index bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.20
then at 86.50. Shorter-term support is seen at
85.50 and then at the overnight low of 85.32.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 85.90. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
6.0

The June Euro is weaker in early electronic
trading. Bears remain in firm overall technical
command. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at the
overnight low of 1.2465 and then at 1.2400.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at 1.2600 and then at the overnight high of
1.2674. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.2506. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are lower again in early
dealings today, on more profit-taking pressure from
recent gains. Deflationary concerns are also
starting to weigh on gold. Gold bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage, but are
fading and need to show fresh power soon. For June
gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
overnight high of $1,185.70 and then at $1,190.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Sell stops likely reside just below support at
$1,170.00 and then at the overnight low of
1,166.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,172.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower again today and
are hovering near a 10-month low. Bears have solid
downside near-term technical momentum. In July
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $70.00 and then at the overnight high
of $70.73. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at Thursday's low of $68.85 and then at
$68.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $70.77. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

Prices were weaker in overnight trading amid
bearishly postured "outside markets" that include a
firmer U.S. dollar index and lower stock index and
crude oil prices. Grain traders will continue to
focus on what the key "outside markets" are doing.
If you are a grain market bull, here is a
compelling observation: Grain futures held up very
well Thursday--when the stock market was tanking
and crude oil prices were at one time down over
$4.00 a barrel. This is one clue that the downside
in the grains is limited at present lower price
levels. Weather patterns in the U.S. Corn Belt are
presently beneficial for crops, which is a bearish
fundamental in the grains.

No comments:

Post a Comment