Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Wednesday, May 5--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are again a higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude
oil futures prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The European Union debt problems are again on the
front burner for many markets. Investors are
flocking to U.S. government securities and the U.S.
dollar as a safe haven during the heightened
uncertainty regarding the EU. I look for the
majority of the markets' reactions to the EU
situation to play out in the next 10 days. During
this time look for higher volatility in many
markets. One other comment: There are now early
technical clues developing that U.S. stock indexes
have put in a market top.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning
trading today, on follow-through selling pressure
from strong losses on Tuesday. The uptrends on the
daily charts have now been negated. Bears have
gained some downside near-term technical momentum.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at Tuesday's low of 1,164.00 and
then at 1,160.00. Sell stops likely reside just
under those levels. Upside resistance for active
traders today is located at 1,175.00 and then at
1,180.00. Buy stops are likely located just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,150.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at the overnight
high of 1,972.00 and then at 1,980.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at Tuesday's
low of 1,953.00 and then at 1,950.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,925.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,850 and then more stops just below
support at Tuesday's low of 10,820. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
10,900 and then at 10,950. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,673

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer
in early trading today. Bulls still have good
upside near-term technical momentum amid the flight
to quality into bonds and notes.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance
support lies at the overnight high of 120 13/32 and
then at 120 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 120 even and then at
120 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119 1/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
121 10/32--second pivot point resistance
120 24/32--first pivot point resistance
120 11/32--previous day's high
120 6/32--previous day's close
119 25/32--pivot point
119 7/32--first pivot point support
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
119 2/32--4-day moving average
118 26/32--previous day's low
118 8/32--second pivot point support
118 4/32--9-day moving average
117 10/32--18-day moving average
116 8/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at the overnight high of
118.13.0 and then at 118.24.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at the overnight low of
118.02.0 and then at 117.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.20.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
118 25/32--second pivot point resistance
118 16/32--first pivot point resistance
118 10/32--previous day's high
118 6/32--previous day's close
118 --pivot point
117 31/32--previous month's high
117 24/32--4-day moving average
117 23/32--first pivot point support
117 17/32--previous day's low
117 9/32--9-day moving average
117 7/32--second pivot point support
116 30/32--18-day moving average
116 7/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is higher again in early
trading today and hit another fresh contract and
12-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 84.00 and then at 84.25.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 83.47 and then at 83.25. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 83.07.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

The June Euro is lower again in early electronic
trading. Prices hit another fresh 12-month low
overnight. Bears remain in full overall technical
command. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at 1.2900 and
then at 1.2850. Shorter-term technical resistance
for the Euro is seen at 1.3000 and then at 1.3050.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early
today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.3076. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 3.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are lower in early dealings
today, on follow-through selling pressure from
solid losses on Tuesday. Gold bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. For June
gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
$1,170.00 and then at the overnight high of
$1,173.80. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support
at the overnight low of $1,164.20 and then at
$1,160.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,158.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower again early today and
hit a fresh six-week low. Bears have gained fresh
downside near-term technical momentum. In June
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $82.00 and then at $82.50. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $80.50
and then at $80.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $79.21. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were weaker in overnight trading. The key
"outside markets" are again in a bearish posture
for the grains early today, as the U.S. dollar
index is stronger, while crude oil and the U.S.
stock indexes are weaker. Corn and soybeans are
feeling pressure from a very strong planting pace
in the U.S. The commodity markets are starting to
feel pressure from the European Union debt crisis
that threatens to develop into a worldwide
contagion.

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