Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Monday, May 3, 2010

Monday, May 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today
is a higher U.S. dollar index.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The European Union's smaller countries' debt crisis
appears to have eased at bit--for the moment--on
the weekend news of a $146 billion bailout package
for Greece, arranged by the other EU countries and
the IMF. The question now becomes, is the weekend
aid package enough to begin serious fixes to the
EU's debt problems? Or, will the debt woes of the
EU surface again soon to once again roil the
world's markets?--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today. Trading has become choppier at
higher price levels recently, bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. There are
still no strong, early clues that market tops are
close at hand in the U.S. stock indexes.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical support comes in at the overnight low of
1,183.80 and then at last week's low of 1,176.80.
Sell stops likely reside just under those levels.
Upside resistance for active traders today is
located at 1,200.00 and then at Friday's high of
1,207.80. Buy stops are likely located just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,201.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 2,020.00 and then at 2,030.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at Friday's
low of 1,997.00 and then at last week's low of
1,989.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 2,000.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at Friday's low of 10,955 and then more
stops just below support at last week's low of
10,920. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 11,125 and then at Friday's
high of 11,150. Shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,993

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker
in early trading today, on some profit-taking
pressure from recent gains. Bulls still have some
near-term technical momentum amid the EU debt
crisis.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at
118 16/32 and then at 118 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at the overnight high of
118 31/32 and then at last week's high of 119 4/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118 6/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
119 28/32--second pivot point resistance
119 15/32--first pivot point resistance
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
119 4/32--previous day's high
119 2/32--previous day's close
118 23/32--pivot point
118 10/32--4-day moving average
118 10/32--first pivot point support
117 31/32--previous day's low
117 20/32--9-day moving average
117 18/32--second pivot point support
116 28/32--18-day moving average
116 6/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
117.26.0 and then at last week's high of 117.31.0.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell
stop orders are likely located just below support
at 117.16.0 and then at Friday's low of 117.08.5.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.10.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
118 14/32--second pivot point resistance
118 5/32--first pivot point resistance
117 31/32--previous month's high
117 31/32--previous day's high
117 29/32--previous day's close
117 23/32--pivot point
117 16/32--4-day moving average
117 14/32--first pivot point support
117 8/32--previous day's low
117 3/32--9-day moving average
117 --second pivot point support
116 23/32--18-day moving average
116 7/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is higher in early
trading today. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 82.47 and then at last week's
high of 82.78. Shorter-term support is seen 82.00
and then at the overnight low of 81.87. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
81.81. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

The June Euro is lower in early electronic trading.
Bears remain in overall technical command. Euro
finds sell stop orders are likely located just
below technical support at 1.3200 and then at
1.3150. Shorter-term technical resistance for the
Euro is seen at 1.3300 and then at Friday's high of
1.3344. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.3336. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are higher in early dealings
today, and hit a fresh five-month high overnight.
Gold bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. For June gold, shorter-term
technical resistance is seen at the overnight high
of $1,184.00 and then at $1,190.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops
likely reside just below support at the overnight
low of $1,177.10 and then at $1,175.00. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$1,170.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls
again have good upside near-term technical
momentum. In June crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at the overnight high
of $86.79 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $86.00 and then at
$85.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $85.19. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly firmer in overnight trading.
Grain market bulls had a good finish to last week's
trading and have some fresh upside technical
momentum heading into the new trading week. Traders
are more closely monitoring the U.S. Midwest
weather patterns. Such will be the case for the
next four months.

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