Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Tuesday, May 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are a higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil
futures prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

U.S. T-Bond and T-Note futures are in price
uptrends on the daily charts and are at or close to
multi-week highs. The rally in the U.S. Treasuries
is one early warning signal for the stock market
bulls that their price uptrends may be coming to an
end soon. The copper futures market, which is in a
solid near-term price downtrend, is also suggesting
that downside pressure could be in the offing for
the U.S. stock indexes. History shows the copper
market is an early leading indicator for price
movement in the stock indexes.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning
trading today. Trading has become choppier at
higher price levels recently, and the uptrends on
the daily charts could now be rolling over. Bulls
do still have the overall near-term technical
advantage.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at Monday's low of 1,183.80 and
then at last week's low of 1,176.80. Sell stops
likely reside just under those levels. Upside
resistance for active traders today is located at
1,200.00 and then at 1,207.80. Buy stops are likely
located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,188.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,027.50 and then
at Monday's high of 2,038.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at Monday's low of
2,001.00 and then at last week's low of 1,989.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 2,000.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at Monday's low of 11,005 and then more
stops just below support at 10,955. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
11,100 and then at Monday's high of 11,130.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above
the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,993

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer
in early trading today. Bulls have gained good
upside near-term technical momentum.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at
119 even and then at the overnight low of 118
26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at
119 16/32 and then at 120 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118 3/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
119 9/32--second pivot point resistance
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
119 3/32--first pivot point resistance
118 31/32--previous day's high
118 29/32--previous day's close
118 25/32--pivot point
118 19/32--first pivot point support
118 15/32--previous day's low
118 14/32--4-day moving average
118 9/32--second pivot point support
117 28/32--9-day moving average
117 1/32--18-day moving average
116 7/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at last week's high of
117.31.0 and then at 118.08.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at the overnight low of
117.17.0 and then at 117.08.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.10.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
117 31/32--second pivot point resistance
117 31/32--previous month's high
117 26/32--previous day's high
117 25/32--first pivot point resistance
117 19/32--pivot point
117 18/32--previous day's close
117 16/32--4-day moving average
117 14/32--previous day's low
117 13/32--first pivot point support
117 7/32--second pivot point support
117 6/32--9-day moving average
116 26/32--18-day moving average
116 7/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is higher in early
trading today and hit a fresh contract high
overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
83.00 and then at 83.25. Shorter-term support is
seen 82.69 and then at the overnight low of 82.40.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 81.85. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
7.0

The June Euro is lower in early electronic trading.
Prices hit a fresh 12-month low overnight. Bears
remain in full overall technical command. Euro
finds sell stop orders are likely located just
below technical support at 1.3100 and then at
1.3050. Shorter-term technical resistance for the
Euro is seen at 1.3150 and then at 1.3200. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow
stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1.3223. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
3.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are firmer in early dealings
today, and hit another fresh five-month high
overnight. Gold bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. For June gold, shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at the overnight
high of $1,190.00 and then at $1,195.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops
likely reside just below support at the overnight
low of $1,178.40 and then at $1,175.00. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$1,173.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today, on profit-
taking pressure from recent gains. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. In June
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $85.00 and then at $86.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $84.50
and then at $84.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $84.17. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading. The
key "outside markets" are in a bearish posture for
the grains early today, as the U.S. dollar index is
stronger, while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes are weaker. Corn and soybeans are feeling
some pressure from a very strong planting pace in
the U.S. Traders are more closely monitoring the
U.S. Midwest weather patterns. Such will be the
case for the next four months.

No comments:

Post a Comment