Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Thursday, May 27-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are higher U.S. stock index and crude oil prices, and
a lower U.S. dollar index.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Crude oil futures prices are solidly higher again
this morning. Price action this morning and the
past two days does suggest a near-term market low
is now in place in crude oil. If crude oil has
indeed put in a near-term low, then that's also
good news for other recently beaten down commodity
futures markets. Market bottom or not, crude oil
futures will continue to be a major "outside force"
for many other commodity futures markets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early morning
trading today, on short covering from recent strong
selling pressure. The U.S. stock index futures
bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. However, solid price gains
today and Friday would suggest near-term market
lows are in place.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day, but is
turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,075.00
and then at 1,065.00. Sell stops likely reside just
under those levels. Upside resistance for active
traders today is located at the overnight high of
1,091.90 and then at 1,100.00. Buy stops are likely
located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,089.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day, but is
turning up. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at the overnight
high of 1,841.00 and then at Wednesday's high of
1,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen
at 1,815.00 and then at 1,800.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,841.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,050 and then more stops just below
support at 10,000. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at Wednesday's high of
10,160 and then at 10,200. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,036

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower
in early trading today, on more profit-taking
pressure from recent gains. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage as near-term
uptrends are still in place on the daily charts.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is
turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at 123 16/32 and then at 124 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 123 even and then at 122
16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 122 21/32

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

126 5/32--lifetime high
125 23/32--second pivot point resistance
125 1/32--first pivot point resistance
124 29/32--previous day's high
124 14/32--4-day moving average
124 11/32--previous day's close
124 7/32--pivot point
123 17/32--first pivot point support
123 13/32--previous day's low
123 3/32--9-day moving average
122 23/32--second pivot point support
121 19/32--18-day moving average
118 4/32--Previous Month's high
116 10/32--100-day moving average
113 6/32--previous month's low
111 1/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 120.00.0 and then at the
overnight high of 120.18.5. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is
turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Sell stop orders are likely located just
below support at the overnight low of 119.23.0 and
then at 119.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119.17.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes

121 20/32--lifetime high
121 13/32--second pivot point resistance
120 31/32--first pivot point resistance
120 29/32--previous day's high
120 16/32--previous day's close
120 16/32--4-day moving average
120 14/32--pivot point
120 --first pivot point support
119 30/32--previous day's low
119 24/32--9-day moving average
119 15/32--second pivot point support
118 23/32--18-day moving average
116 21/32--previous month's high
115 20/32--100-day moving average
113 15/32--previous month's low
110 13/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early
trading today, on profit taking, as prices still
hover near the recent 12-month high high. Dollar
index bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
87.50 then at the overnight high of 87.66. Shorter-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 86.87
and then at 86.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 87.09. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0

The September Euro is firmer in early electronic
trading, on short covering. Bears remain in firm
overall technical command. Euro finds sell stop
orders are likely located just below technical
support at 1.2250 and then at 1.2200. Shorter-term
technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the
overnight high of 1.2357 and then at 1.2400. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow
stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1.2339. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are near steady in early
dealings today. Safe-haven buying is supporting the
market, but profit-taking is limiting gains. Gold
bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. For August gold, shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at the overnight high of
$1,220.60 and then at $1,230.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at the overnight low of
$1,211.60 and then at Wednesday's low of 1,202.70.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: $1,220.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading solidly higher again
today on more short-covering. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage, but a strong
close today would hint that a near-term low is in
place. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $74.00 and then at $75.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$72.50 and then at $72.00. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $72.63.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on short
covering amid bullishly postured "outside markets"
that include a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher
stock index and crude oil prices. Grain traders
will continue to focus on what the key "outside
markets" are doing. Traders will closely scrutinize
this morning's weekly USDA export sales data. At
present, weather patterns in the U.S. Corn Belt are
beneficial for crops, which is a bearish
fundamental in the grains.

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