Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Wednesday, May 26-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are higher U.S. stock index, crude oil and gold
prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Tuesday's price action in the U.S. stock indexes,
in which prices traded sharply lower and at multi-
month lows early on and then rebounded as the day
went on to close near the session highs and near
unchanged levels, does suggest the stock market
bears have become exhausted at the lower price
levels and that near-term bottoms may be close at
hand in the indexes. --Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today, on short covering from recent strong
selling pressure. The U.S. stock index futures
bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at the overnight low of 1,070.50 and then
at 1,060.00. Sell stops likely reside just under
those levels. Upside resistance for active traders
today is located at 1,090.00 and then at 1,100.00.
Buy stops are likely located just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,067.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 1,840.00 and then at 1,850.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 1,814.00 and then at 1,800.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,841.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,050 and then more stops just below
support at 10,000. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,1500 and then at
10,200. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,036

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower
in early trading today, on a profit-taking pullback
from recent strong gains. Prices hit fresh contract
highs on Tuesday. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage as near-term
uptrends are still in place on the daily charts.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 124 20/32 and then at 125
even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 124
even and then at 123 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 124 30/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 15/32--lifetime high
127 7/32--second pivot point resistance
126 15/32--previous day's high
126 6/32--first pivot point resistance
125 14/32--pivot point
125 5/32--previous day's close
124 22/32--previous day's low
124 20/32--4-day moving average
124 13/32--first pivot point support
123 21/32--second pivot point support
123 3/32--9-day moving average
121 28/32--18-day moving average
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
117 10/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 121.16.0 and then at the
overnight high of 121.23.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders
are likely located just below support at the
overnight low of 120.28.5 and then at 120.16.0.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 121.16.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

122 28/32--second pivot point resistance
122 14/32--lifetime high
122 14/32--previous day's high
122 8/32--first pivot point resistance
121 26/32--pivot point
121 20/32--previous day's close
121 12/32--previous day's low
121 9/32--4-day moving average
121 6/32--first pivot point support
120 24/32--second pivot point support
120 13/32--9-day moving average
119 18/32--18-day moving average
117 31/32--previous month's high
116 29/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early
trading today as prices hover near the recent 12-
month high high. Dollar index bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 87.09
then at last week's high of 87.62. Shorter-term
support is seen at 86.50 and then at 86.00. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
86.74. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

The June Euro is near steady in early electronic
trading. Bears remain in firm overall technical
command. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at the
overnight low of 1.2265 and then at 1.2200.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at the overnight high of 1.2380 and then at
1.2400. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.2339. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are higher in early dealings
today. Safe-haven buying and fresh speculative
buying is supporting the market. Gold bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. For June
gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
$1,220.00 and then at $1,230.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at $1,200.00 and then at
1,190.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,218.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading solidly higher today
on a short-covering bounce in a bear market. Bears
still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $71.00 and then at $72.00. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at
$70.00 and then at the overnight low of $69.21.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: $70.26. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on short
covering amid bullishly postured "outside markets"
that include a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher
stock index and crude oil prices. Grain traders
will continue to focus on what the key "outside
markets" are doing. Traders will closely scrutinize
this morning's weekly USDA export sales data. At
present, weather patterns in the U.S. Corn Belt are
beneficial for crops, which is a bearish
fundamental in the grains.

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