Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Thursday, May 20-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today
is lower U.S. stock index, gold crude oil futures prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Gold futures are under selling pressure again this
morning as more profit taking is featured after
prices last week hit a fresh all-time record high.
No serious chart damage has been inflicted in gold,
yet. A solid push in prices below the last
"reaction low" on the daily bar chart, which is
located at the May low of $1,156.20, would negate
the price uptrend on the daily chart and would
produce near-term technical damage to suggest a
near-term market top is in place.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are lower again in early
morning trading today. The U.S. stock index futures
bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage and are gaining fresh downside near-term
momentum.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at 1,091.00 and then at 1,080.00. Sell
stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside
resistance for active traders today is located at
the overnight high of 1,115.60 and then at
1,125.00. Buy stops are likely located just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,104.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 1,860.00 and then at the overnight high
of 1,874.25. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at 1,840.00 and then at 1,830.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,850.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at Wednesday's low of 10,305 and then more
stops just below support at 10,250. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
10,375 and then at 10,400. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,277

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer
in early trading today. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage as neaer-term
uptrends are in place on the daily charts.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday's
high of 123 17/32 and then at 124 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 123 even and then at the
overnight low of 122 18/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 122 21/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
123 31/32--second pivot point resistance
123 17/32--previous day's high
123 9/32--first pivot point resistance
122 27/32--pivot point
122 19/32--previous day's close
122 13/32--previous day's low
122 5/32--first pivot point support
121 23/32--second pivot point support
121 15/32--4-day moving average
121 15/32--9-day moving average
120 11/32--18-day moving average
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
116 29/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of
120.22.0 and then at the May high of 121.01.5.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Sell stop orders are likely located just
below support at the overnight low of 120.03.5 and
then at 120.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 120.01.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

121 1/32--lifetime high
120 31/32--second pivot point resistance
120 22/32--previous day's high
120 20/32--first pivot point resistance
120 10/32--pivot point
120 8/32--previous day's close
120 1/32--previous day's low
119 31/32--first pivot point support
119 30/32--4-day moving average
119 21/32--second pivot point support
119 15/32--9-day moving average
118 21/32--18-day moving average
117 31/32--previous month's high
116 21/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early
trading today. Dollar index bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 87.00nd then at 87.25.
Shorter-term support is seen at 86.50 and then at
the overnight low of 86.28. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.39.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

The June Euro is weaker in early electronic
trading. Bears remain in firm overall technical
command. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at 1.2300 and
then at 1.2250. Shorter-term technical resistance
for the Euro is seen at 1.2400 and then at the
overnight high of 1.2440. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the
Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2384.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are lower again in early
dealings today, on more profit-taking pressure from
recent gains. Gold bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage, but are fading and
need to show fresh power soon. For June gold,
shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
$1,190.00 and then at $1,200.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at the overnight low of
$1,179.00 and then at 1,175.00. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,192.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower again today and
hit a fresh eight-month low overnight. Bears have
downside near-term technical momentum. In July
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $72.00 and then at $72.50. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $70.00 and then at $69.00. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$73.46. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed in overnight trading amid
bearishly postured "outside markets" that include a
firmer U.S. dollar index and lower stock index and
crude oil prices. Grain traders will continue to
focus on what the key "outside markets" are doing.
Weather patterns in the U.S. Corn Belt are
presently beneficial for crops, which is a bearish
fundamental in the grains. Traders will closely
scrutinize this morning's USDA weekly export sales
report.

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