Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Friday, August 27, 2010

Friday, August 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

Note: I am out of the office today and my friend
and fellow trader/analyst Ken Seehusen produced my
morning report. The format is a bit different.
but I think you'll enjoy Ken's style, too. Jim

The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due
to short covering. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If September extends this month's decline,
July's low crossing at 1698.00 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1842.20 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 1805.75.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1842.20. First support is Wednesday's
low crossing at 1756.75. Second support is July's
low crossing at 1698.00. The September NASDAQ 100
was up 7.75 pts. at 1775.25 as of 5:52 AM CST.
Overnight action sets the stage for a higher
opening by September NASDAQ 100 when the day
session begins later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was higher overnight
due to short covering. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold and are turning neutral to bullish
hinting that a short-term low might be in or is
near. However, closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1087.54 are needed to confirm
that a short-term low has been posted. If September
extends this month's decline, July's low crossing
at 1003.10 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
1065.75. Second resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1087.54. First support is
Wednesday's low crossing at 1038.00. Second support
is July's low crossing at 1003.10. The September
S&P 500 Index was up 3.40 pts. at 1048.20 as of
5:54 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a
higher opening by the September S&P 500 index when
the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES

September T-bonds were higher overnight as it
extends this summer's rally. Stochastics and the
RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that additional short-term gains are
possible. If September extends this year's rally,
the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline
on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 138-02
is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 132-02 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 136-31.
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of
the 2008-2009-decline on the weekly continuation
chart crossing at 138-02. First support is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 134-18. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
132-02.

ENERGY MARKETS

October crude oil was higher due to short covering
overnight as it consolidates some of this month's
decline. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might
be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 77.23 are needed to confirm
that a short-term low has been posted. If October
extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at
70.35 is the next downside target. First resistance
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.03.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 77.23. First support is Wednesday's low
crossing at 70.76. Second support is May's low
crossing at 70.35.

CURRENCIES

The September Dollar was steady to slightly higher
overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's
decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and
are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a
short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.14 would
temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September
extends this month's rally, the reaction high
crossing at 84.73 is the next upside target. First
resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 83.64.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at
84.73. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 82.87. Second support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 82.14.

PRECIOUS METALS

October gold was higher overnight as it
consolidates around the 75% retracement level of
the June-July decline crossing at 1239.60.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging
but are neutral to bullish hinting that additional
strength is possible near-term. If October extends
the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level
of the June-July decline crossing at 1253.30 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1215.50 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
Thursday's high crossing at 1244.50. Second
resistance is the 87% retracement level of the
June-July decline crossing at 1253.30. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
1231.80. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1215.50.

GRAINS

December corn was higher overnight as it extends
Thursday's rally. Given the strong export demand
along with disappointing early harvest results in
the southern Corn Belt, traders are becoming
concerned that this year's corn crop might fall
short of the latest USDA and private corn crop
estimates. If these fears are confirmed later this
fall, carryout for next year will tighten even
further forcing the market to move higher to bid
additional corn acres to be planted next spring in
the U.S. The high-range close overnight sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when the day
session begins. The late-week rally has turned
stochastics and the RSI bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
If December extends the rally off June's low, last
fall's high on the weekly chart crossing at 4.52 is
the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low
crossing at 4.15 1/4 would confirm that a short-
term top has been posted. First resistance is this
month's high crossing at 4.38 3/4. Second
resistance is last fall's high on the weekly chart
crossing at 4.52. First support is Tuesday's low
crossing at 4.15 1/4. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 4.05 3/4.

December wheat was higher due to short covering
overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's
decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening when the day session
begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and
the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If December extends
this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of
this summer's rally crossing at 6.70 1/2 is the
next downside target. Closes above the reaction
high crossing at 7.32 would confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 7.21. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.32.
First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at
6.77 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement
level of this summer's rally crossing at 6.70 1/2.

November soybeans were higher overnight as it
extends Thursday's short covering rally. Strong
export demand along with concerns over the size of
this year's soybean crop due to sudden death
syndrome are providing support for the late-week
rebound. The high-range overnight close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when the day
session begins later this morning. Stochastics and
the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish
hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.20
3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. If November renews this month's decline,
the 38% retracement level of the June-August rally
crossing at 9.87 1/4 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 10.20 3/4. Second resistance is this
month's high crossing at 10.49. First support is
Tuesday's low crossing at 9.93 3/4. Second support
is the 38% retracement level of the June-August
rally crossing at 9.87 1/4.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Wednesday, August 25-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

***NOTE: There will be no morning report from me on
Thursday, as I will be traveling most of the day.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Tuesday's U.S. existing home sales report that
showed a very sharp decline in sales in July is yet
another warning that the next few months could see
some strong headwinds for the U.S. economy and for
the U.S. stock market. The U.S. stock indexes will
continue to be the major "outside market" for which
many other markets will track very closely.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high
of 1,055.50 and then at Tuesday's high of 1,065.70.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is
located at Tuesday's low of 1,044.30 and then at
the May low of 1,036.60. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of
1,781.50 and then at 1,790.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at Tuesday's low of
1,766.00 and then at 1,750.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,000 and then more stops just below
support at Tuesday's low of 9,975. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday's
high of 10,090 and then at 10,150. Shorter-term
moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day
moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight contract high of 136 even and then at 136
16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 135 14/32 and then at 135 even.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

137 7/32--second pivot point resistance
136 17/32--first pivot point resistance
136 1/32--lifetime high
136 1/32--previous day's high
135 26/32--previous day's close
135 10/32--pivot point
134 20/32--first pivot point support
134 18/32--4-day moving average
134 4/32--previous day's low
133 16/32--9-day moving average
133 13/32--second pivot point support
132 17/32--Previous Month's high
131 8/32--18-day moving average
125 7/32--previous month's low
123 27/32--100-day moving average
111 1/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Buy stops likely reside just above
shorter-term technical resistance at the contract
high of 126.24.0 and then at 127.00.0. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders
are likely located just below support at the
overnight low of 126.06.5 and then at 126.00.0.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes

127 11/32--second pivot point resistance
126 28/32--first pivot point resistance
126 24/32--lifetime high
126 24/32--previous day's high
126 14/32--previous day's close
126 10/32--pivot point
125 29/32--4-day moving average
125 27/32--first pivot point support
125 25/32--9-day moving average
125 23/32--previous day's low
125 9/32--second pivot point support
125 1/32--18-day moving average
123 28/32--previous month's high
121 14/32--previous month's low
120 13/32--100-day moving average
110 13/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early
trading. Bulls still have some upside bullish
momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 84.00 and then
at 84.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 83.40 and then at 83.00. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading near steady early
today as prices hit a fresh three-month low on
Tuesday. Bears still have downside near-term
technical momentum. In October crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at $72.00 and
then at the overnight high of $72.37. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight
low of $71.32 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were steady to firmer in overnight trading.
The markets saw a corrective bounce from selling
pressure on Tuesday. The grain market bulls are
fading. The key "outside markets" are in a mildly
bearish posture for the grains this morning: the
U.S. dollar index is firmer, while crude oil and
the U.S. stock indexes are slightly lower.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Tuesday, August 24-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Most commodity markets are under selling pressure
early Tuesday, being led lower by slumping European
and U.S. stock markets, amid worries about world
economic weakness in the coming months. There are
compelling clues that the commodity markets will
experience stiff headwinds in the coming months--
with a major clue being the extremely low U.S.
Treasury yields at present, which do hint at
commodity price deflation.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,065.70 and then at Monday's high of 1,080.20. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is
located at 1,050.80 and then at the May low of
1,036.60. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
4.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 1,810.25 and then
at 1,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 1,792.25 and then
at 1,780.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,050 and then more stops just below
support at 10,000. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,144 and then at
10,200. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight contract high of 135 7/32 and then at 135
16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 135
even and then at 134 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 8.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

135 7/32--lifetime high
134 24/32--second pivot point resistance
134 15/32--first pivot point resistance
134 11/32--previous day's high
134 7/32--previous day's close
134 3/32--pivot point
133 31/32--4-day moving average
133 26/32--first pivot point support
133 22/32--previous day's low
133 14/32--second pivot point support
133 1/32--9-day moving average
132 17/32--Previous Month's high
130 25/32--18-day moving average
125 7/32--previous month's low
123 20/32--100-day moving average
111 1/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Buy stops likely reside just above
shorter-term technical resistance at the contract
high of 126.08.0 and then at 126.16.0. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders
are likely located just below support at 126.00.0
and then at the overnight low of 125.23.0.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 8/32--lifetime high
126 5/32--second pivot point resistance
125 30/32--first pivot point resistance
125 26/32--previous day's high
125 24/32--previous day's close
125 23/32--4-day moving average
125 22/32--9-day moving average
125 20/32--pivot point
125 13/32--first pivot point support
125 9/32--previous day's low
125 3/32--second pivot point support
124 27/32--18-day moving average
123 28/32--previous month's high
121 14/32--previous month's low
120 9/32--100-day moving average
110 13/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early
trading. Bulls have regained upside bullish
momentum as prices hit a fresh six-week high
overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 84.00 and then
at 84.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 83.73 and then at 83.50. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower early today and
hit a fresh three-month low overnight. Bears have
downside near-term technical momentum. In October
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $73.05 and then
at $73.50. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $72.00 and then at $71.50. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. The key
"outside markets" are in a bearish posture for the
grains this morning: the U.S. dollar index is
higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes
are lower. The generally weak posture of the
commodity sector today also does not bode well for
the grain market bulls.

Monday, August 23, 2010

Monday, August 23-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Markets are generally quiet to start the trading
week. We are nearing the end of the "dog days of
summer." Next week will likely be another quieter,
lower-volume trading week, heading into the U.S.
Labor Day holiday. In early September, look for
market activity to heat up significantly, as
traders in the U.S. and Europe get back to serious
business, following summertime vacations.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at 1,085.00 and then at last
week's high of 1,098.50. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at the overnight
low of 1,068.80 and then at last week's low of
1,061.80. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 1,850.00 and then at last week's high of
1,862.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 1,824.50 and then at
Friday's low of 1,808.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,200 and then more stops just below
support at 10,150. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,250 and then at
10,300. Shorter-term moving averages are still
bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below
the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 134 9/32 and then at 134 16/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 133 27/32 and then at 133 16/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

135 7/32--lifetime high
135 22/32--second pivot point resistance
135 7/32--previous day's high
134 27/32--first pivot point resistance
134 12/32--pivot point
134 --previous day's close
133 29/32--previous day's low
133 21/32--4-day moving average
133 17/32--first pivot point support
133 2/32--second pivot point support
132 17/32--9-day moving average
132 17/32--Previous Month's high
130 12/32--18-day moving average
125 7/32--previous month's low
123 14/32--100-day moving average
111 1/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
125.20.0 and then at 126.00.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at last week's low of
125.06.5 and then at 125.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 18/32--second pivot point resistance
126 8/32--lifetime high
126 8/32--previous day's high
126 1/32--first pivot point resistance
125 24/32--pivot point
125 22/32--4-day moving average
125 20/32--9-day moving average
125 17/32--previous day's close
125 14/32--previous day's low
125 7/32--first pivot point support
124 30/32--second pivot point support
124 22/32--18-day moving average
123 28/32--previous month's high
121 14/32--previous month's low
120 5/32--100-day moving average
110 13/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower
in early trading. Bulls have regained upside
bullish momentum after producing a bullish weekly
high close on Friday. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 83.24 and then at last week's
high of 83.43. Shorter-term support is seen at
82.75 and then at 82.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading slightly higher early
today after hitting a fresh six-week low and
closing at a bearish weekly low close on Friday.
Bears still have some downside technical momentum.
In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $74.50 and then at $75.00. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at last
week's low of $73.44 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading. The key
"outside markets" are in a slightly bullish posture
for the grains this morning: the U.S. dollar index
is weaker, while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes are slightly higher. Soybean market bulls
have faded recently, but the corn bulls still have
some upside near-term technical momentum. Wheat has
seen choppy trading, but it still appears a market
top is in place in wheat.