Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Tuesday, May 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are solidly lower U.S. stock index futures prices and
solid gains in the U.S. dollar index.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The markets' euphoria over the European Union-IMF
rescue package for debt-strapped EU nations appears
to have lasted just one day, as stock markets are
under selling pressure this morning. Look for
higher volatility in most markets all of this week.
It does appear the bears have quickly regained
downside momentum in the stock indexes and in many
commodity markets, including crude oil. The one
commodity market that is shining is gold, which is
solidly higher early today, on its safe-haven asset
status.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are solidly lower in early
morning trading today. Bears have the near-term
technical advantage to suggest near-term market
tops are in place.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical support comes in at 1,130.00 and then at
Monday's low of 1,122.10. Sell stops likely reside
just under those levels. Upside resistance for
active traders today is located at 1,150.00 and
then at Monday's high of 1,162.00. Buy stops are
likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 3.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,130.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at 1,925.00 and
then at Monday's high of 1,943.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 1,910.00 and then at
1,900.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
3.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,904.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,600 and then more stops just below
support at 10,535. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,700 and then at
10,750. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is
below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,666

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher
in early trading today, on more flight-to-quality
buying interest as the stock market is under strong
selling pressure again today. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance support lies
at 122 even and then at 122 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 121 16/32 and then at 121
even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 122 10/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
122 7/32--second pivot point resistance
121 22/32--4-day moving average
121 17/32--previous day's high
121 16/32--first pivot point resistance
120 27/32--pivot point
120 26/32--previous day's close
120 5/32--previous day's low
120 4/32--first pivot point support
120 1/32--9-day moving average
119 15/32--second pivot point support
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
118 17/32--18-day moving average
116 15/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 119.24.0 and then at
120.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located
just below support at 119.08.0 and then at
119.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119.23.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

121 1/32--lifetime high
119 26/32--second pivot point resistance
119 11/32--first pivot point resistance
119 10/32--previous day's high
119 10/32--4-day moving average
118 29/32--previous day's close
118 28/32--pivot point
118 13/32--first pivot point support
118 12/32--previous day's low
118 11/32--9-day moving average
117 31/32--previous month's high
117 30/32--second pivot point support
117 19/32--18-day moving average
116 11/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in
early trading today, on a resumption of flight-to-
quality buying amid the EU debt crisis that is
pummeling the Euro currency. Dollar index bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 85.00 and then
at last week's high of 85.46. Shorter-term support
is seen at 84.50 and then at the overnight low of
84.33. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 84.54. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.0

The June Euro is solidly lower in early electronic
trading. Bears remain in firm overall technical
command. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at 1.2650 and
then at 1.2600. Shorter-term technical resistance
for the Euro is seen at 1.2700 and then at 1.2750.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early
today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.2838. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 3.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are sharply higher in early
dealings today, and hit a fresh five-month high
overnight. Gold bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls are now within
striking distance of the all-time high of
$1,227.50, basis nearby futures. For June gold,
shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
$1,220.00 and then at $1,227.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at $1,210.00 and then at
$1,200.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,195.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today. Bears have
downside near-term technical momentum. In June
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $76.00 and then at $77.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $75.00
and then at last week's low of $74.51. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$76.76. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading, amid a
higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil and
U.S. stock index futures prices. Grain bulls are
now fading and need to show fresh power soon.
Traders will closely scrutinize this morning's
monthly USDA supply and demand report.

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