Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Tuesday, May 25-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are sharply lower U.S. stock index and crude oil
prices, and a sharply higher U.S. dollar index.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Risk aversion is the play of the day in the
markets, as traders are seeking out U.S. Treasuries
and the U.S. dollar as a safe haven amid mounting
concern about the European Union's debt problems
and new tensions between North Korea and South
Korea. This issue just will not go away and could
turn into a worldwide credit crisis contagion. The
U.S. stock indexes hit fresh seven-month lows today
while crude oil futures prices dropped below $68.00
a barrel. The keener risk aversion in the
marketplace today is also hitting commodity futures
hard.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are sharply lower in early
morning trading today, and hit fresh multi-month
lows. The U.S. stock index futures bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage and are
gaining fresh downside near-term momentum.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at the overnight low of 1,036.60
and then at 1,025.00. Sell stops likely reside just
under those levels. Upside resistance for active
traders today is located at 1,050.00 and then at
1,060.00. Buy stops are likely located just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
3.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,056.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 1,785.00 and then at 1,800.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 1,761.50 and then at 1,750.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,789.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 9,800 and then more stops just below
support at 9,750. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 9,900 and then at
9,950. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,036

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are sharply
higher in early trading today, on a flight to
quality into U.S. government debt. Prices hit fresh
contract highs overnight. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage as near-term
uptrends are firmly in place on the daily charts.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight contract high of 126 15/32 and then at
127 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 125
16/32 and then at 125 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 7.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 124 30/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 15/32--lifetime high
125 30/32--second pivot point resistance
125 13/32--previous day's high
125 11/32--first pivot point resistance
124 25/32--pivot point
124 23/32--previous day's close
124 8/32--previous day's low
124 6/32--first pivot point support
124 3/32--4-day moving average
123 20/32--second pivot point support
122 19/32--9-day moving average
121 16/32--18-day moving average
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
117 6/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at the overnight high of
122.14.5 and then at 122.24.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders
are likely located just below support at the
overnight low of 121.12.5 and then at 121.00.0.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 121.16.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

122 14/32--lifetime high
121 29/32--second pivot point resistance
121 20/32--first pivot point resistance
121 19/32--previous day's high
121 12/32--previous day's close
121 11/32--pivot point
121 2/32--first pivot point support
121 1/32--previous day's low
120 31/32--4-day moving average
120 25/32--second pivot point support
120 4/32--9-day moving average
119 11/32--18-day moving average
117 31/32--previous month's high
116 27/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is sharply higher in
early trading today and trading near the recent 12-
month high high. Dollar index bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at last week's high of 87.62
then at 88.00. Shorter-term support is seen at
87.00 and then at the overnight low of 86.56.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 86.74. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
8.0

The June Euro is sharply lower in early electronic
trading and near the recent low. Bears remain in
firm overall technical command. Euro finds sell
stop orders are likely located just below technical
support at the overnight low of 1.2181 and then at
last week's low of 1.2140. Shorter-term technical
resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2250 and then
at 1.2300. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.2339. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 2.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are near steady in early
dealings today. Safe-haven buying is limiting the
downside in crude today. Deflationary concerns are
starting to weigh on gold, which is limiting the
upside. Gold bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. For June gold, shorter-term
technical resistance is seen at Monday's high of
$1,197.30 and then at $1,200.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at the overnight low of
$1,185.20 and then at 1,180.00. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,192.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading sharply lower today
and hit a fresh 10-month low. Bears still have
solid downside near-term technical momentum. In
July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $68.00 and then at $69.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $67.00
and then at $66.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $68.66. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 2.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading amid
bearishly postured "outside markets" that include a
stronger U.S. dollar index and sharply lower stock
index and crude oil prices. Grain traders will
continue to focus on what the key "outside markets"
are doing. If crude oil continues to tumble, the
upside for all the grains will be limited in the
coming weeks, barring any serious weather scare in
the Corn Belt. At present, weather patterns in the
U.S. Corn Belt are presently beneficial for crops,
which is a bearish fundamental in the grains

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