Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Friday, May 7, 2010

Friday, May 7--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher U.S. stock
index futures prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Traders appear to have calmed down a bit after
Thursday's wild trading action in many markets.
With the U.S. dollar seeing a downside correction
and the stock indexes seeing an upside correction,
that does suggest traders over-reacted to the
rioting in Athens that played out on television
Thursday. Make no mistake, however. The European
Union sovereign debt crisis is not over. However,
it appears the strongest one-day market reactions
to the crisis likely did occur on Thursday. Still,
look for next week's trader focus to once again be
on latest developments coming out of the European
Union.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today, on a corrective bounce following
strong losses on Thursday. Bears have gained solid
downside near-term technical momentum this week, to
strongly suggest near-term market tops are in
place.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at the overnight low of 1,113.00
and then at 1,100.00. Sell stops likely reside just
under those levels. Upside resistance for active
traders today is located at the overnight high of
1,134.30 and then at 1,140.00. Buy stops are likely
located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,113.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 1,910.00 and then at
1,920.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 1,872.75 and then at
1,860.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,889.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,450 and then more stops just below
support at 10,400. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at Wednesday's high of
10,550 and then at 10,600. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,486

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower
in early trading today, on a profit-taking pullback
from big gains on Thursday. Bulls still have upside
near-term technical momentum amid the flight to
quality into bonds and notes.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance support lies
at 122 even and then at 122 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 121 16/32 and then at 121
even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 121 14/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
126 29/32--second pivot point resistance
124 28/32--first pivot point resistance
124 16/32--previous day's high
122 28/32--previous day's close
122 16/32--pivot point
120 17/32--4-day moving average
120 15/32--first pivot point support
120 3/32--previous day's low
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
119 4/32--9-day moving average
118 3/32--second pivot point support
117 30/32--18-day moving average
116 11/32--100-day moving average
114 6/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 119.16.0 and then at the
overnight high of 120.02.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at 119.00.0 and then at
118.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118.27.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

122 12/32--second pivot point resistance
121 3/32--first pivot point resistance
121 1/32--lifetime high
121 1/32--previous day's high
119 25/32--previous day's close
119 23/32--pivot point
118 17/32--4-day moving average
118 14/32--first pivot point support
118 12/32--previous day's low
117 31/32--previous month's high
117 27/32--9-day moving average
117 9/32--18-day moving average
117 2/32--second pivot point support
116 9/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early
trading today, on a modest corrective pullback from
recent strong gains. Prices Thursday hit a fresh
contract and 12-month high. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 85.00 and then at
Thursday's contract high of 85.46. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 84.51 and
then at 84.06. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 84.09. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.5

The June Euro is higher in early electronic
trading, on a corrective bounce from recent selling
pressure. Prices hit a fresh 14-month low on
Thursday. Bears remain in full overall technical
command. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at 1.2700 and
then at 1.2650. Shorter-term technical resistance
for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of
1.2803 and then at Thursday's high of 1.2859. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow
stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1.2833. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.5

GOLD

Comex gold futures are near steady in early
dealings today, as the market pauses from recent
strong gains that saw prices push above $1,200 on
Thursday and hit a fresh five-month high. Gold
bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. For June gold, shorter-term
technical resistance is seen at $1,200.00 and then
at Thursday's high of $1,211.90. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at the overnight low of
$1,195.50 and then at $1,190.00. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,191.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today, on a
corrective bounce after prices plunged to a fresh
11-week low Thursday. Bears have gained solid
downside near-term technical momentum this week. In
June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $78.19 and then
at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $76.67 and then at
$76.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $76.78. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading.
Traders are spooked by the financial markets amid
the European Union debt crisis. "When in doubt, get
out" is the mantra of most traders during times of
heightened uncertainty. Soybean bulls are fading,
while corn and wheat bulls are hanging tough amid
the turmoil in many markets. Look for an active
trading day today in the grains.

No comments:

Post a Comment