Friday, April 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher gold
prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Gold market bulls this week have put in an
impressive performance. Not only have gold prices
this week hit a new high for 2010, they have done
so without the help of a weaker U.S. dollar against
the other major currencies. The Euorpean Union's
sovereign debt problems are prompting traders in
Europe to buy gold with their European currencies
as a hedge against further deterioration of their
currencies. Gold hit a new record high this week,
in Euro currency terms. Importantly, gold this week
is once again being viewed by traders as a "safe-
haven" investment asset during times of heightened
economic, financial or geopolitical uncertainty.--
Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today. While trading has become a bit
choppier at higher price levels recently, bulls
still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. There are still no strong clues that
market tops are close at hand in the U.S. stock
indexes. However, veteran traders do know the old
market saying about stocks: "Sell in May and go
away."
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at 1,200.00 and then at Thursday's
low of 1,188.10. Sell stops likely reside just
under those levels. Upside resistance for active
traders today is located at this week's high of
1,216.70 and then at 1,225.00. Buy stops are likely
located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,201.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 2,050.00 and then at this
week's high of 2,057.50. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-
term support is seen at the overnight low of
2,035.25 and then at 2,025.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 2,033.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 11,100 and then more stops just below
support at Thursday's low of 11,045. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
this week's high of 11,210 and then at 11,250.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-
day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 11,101
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are near
steady in early trading today. Bulls still have
some near-term technical momentum amid the EU debt
crisis that is providing "flight to quality" buying
of U.S. securities.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at
118 even and then at 117 15/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at 118 16/32 and then at
this week's high of 118 24/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117 31/32
JUNE U.S. T-Bonds
126 14/32--lifetime high
118 24/32--second pivot point resistance
118 15/32--first pivot point resistance
118 12/32--Previous Month's high
118 8/32--previous day's high
118 6/32--previous day's close
117 31/32--pivot point
117 24/32--4-day moving average
117 22/32--first pivot point support
117 15/32--previous day's low
117 11/32--9-day moving average
117 6/32--second pivot point support
116 19/32--18-day moving average
116 7/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at the overnight high of
117.16.0 and then at 117.24.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at 117.00.0 and then at
116.29.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.05.0
JUNE U.S. T-Notes
120 9/32--lifetime high
117 25/32--second pivot point resistance
117 22/32--previous month's high
117 18/32--first pivot point resistance
117 14/32--previous day's high
117 12/32--previous day's close
117 8/32--pivot point
117 5/32--4-day moving average
117 1/32--first pivot point support
116 31/32--9-day moving average
116 29/32--previous day's low
116 23/32--second pivot point support
116 18/32--18-day moving average
116 7/32--100-day moving average
115 9/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early
trading today, on more profit-taking pressure from
recent gains. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage amid the EU debt crisis.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 82.00 and then at the
overnight high of 82.23. Shorter-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 81.78 and then at
81.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 81.81. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.5
The June Euro is higher in early electronic
trading, on a short-covering bounce in a bear
market. Bears remain in overall technical command.
Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just
below technical support at 1.3300 and then at
1.3250. Shorter-term technical resistance for the
Euro is seen at 1.3350 and then at 1.3400. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow
stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1.3336. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.5
GOLD
Comex gold futures are higher in early dealings
today, and hit a fresh five-month high overnight.
Gold bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage and have gained more upside
momentum this week. For June gold, shorter-term
technical resistance is seen at the overnight high
of $1,178.50 and then at $1,185.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops
likely reside just below support at the overnight
low of $1,167.80 and then at $1,160.00. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$1,160.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls are
regaining upside technical momentum. In June crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance
at the overnight high of $86.13 and then at $87.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$85.00 and then at $84.00. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $85.19.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were mostly firmer in overnight trading. The
key "outside markets" are again in a bullish
posture for the grains today, as the U.S. dollar
index is weaker, while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes are firmer. After a rough start to the week
for the bulls, they are regaining some technical
momentum to end the week. My bias is that corn will
be the grain markets leader for the near term.
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