Thursday Evening, April 22--Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update
COPYING AND FORWARDING IS THEFT AND PROHIBITED BY LAW!!
Copyright: 2010 Jim Wyckoff Enterprises. It is theft and
a violation of international law to redistribute any part
of this proprietary content in any form without expressed
permission from Jim Wyckoff. This content is reserved for
paying subscribers. I will vigorously pursue any and all
violators of my copyrights — and they will be prosecuted.
Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim
Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.
http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp
Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today’s significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.
*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed up $0.15 at $95.60
today. Prices poked to another fresh six-week high today
and closed nearer the session high. Prices this week have
seen a bullish upside "breakout" from a symmetrical
triangle pattern on the daily bar chart. The cattle
market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
the contract high of $96.22. The next downside technical
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $94.00. First resistance
is seen at today's high of $95.92 and then at $96.22.
First support is seen at today's low of $94.90 and then
at $94.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.
August feeder cattle closed down $0.05 at $116.15 today.
Prices closed near the session high today in more quiet
trading. Feeder bulls still have the solid near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the contract
high of $117.10. The next downside price objective for
the bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at $114.00. First resistance is seen at
this week's high of $116.60 and then at $117.10. First
support is seen at today's low of $115.60 and then at
$115.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0
June lean hogs closed down $0.12 at $86.95 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. The key "outside
markets" were in a bearish posture for hogs today, as the
U.S. dollar index was higher, while crude oil and the
U.S. stock indexes were weaker. Bullish cash hog market
fundamentals are boosting the futures market higher.
Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
There are no early technical clues of a market top being
close at hand. Prices are in an 11-week-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for
the bulls is to push prices above solid chart resistance
at $90.00. The next downside price objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at this week's low of $85.40. First resistance is
seen at the contract high of $87.30 and then at $88.00.
First support is seen at today's low of $86.25 and then
at $86.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0
May pork bellies closed down $0.27 at $96.45 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today on more profit taking.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the contract high of $100.00. The next
downside price objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $94.00.
First resistance is seen at today's high of $97.40 and
then at $98.00. First support is seen at $96.00 and then
at today's low of $95.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0
*. GRAINS: July corn futures closed up 2 1/4 cents at
$3.71 1/4 today. Prices closed near the session high
today. Rock-solid export demand for U.S. corn this week
has been underpinning prices. The key "outside markets"
were in a bearish posture for corn today, as the U.S.
dollar index was higher, while crude oil and the U.S.
stock indexes were weaker. That did limit the upside in
corn, as did near-record corn planting in the Corn Belt
this week. While bears do still have the overall near-
term technical advantage in corn, the bulls have shown
impressive resilience this week to suggest there is not
much downside pressure left in the market. The next
downside price objective for the bears is to push and
close prices below solid technical support at the April
low of $3.55. Bulls' next upside price objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
last week's high of $3.74 3/4 a bushel. First resistance
for July corn is seen at this week's high of $3.73 and
then at $3.74 3/4. First support is seen at today's low
of $3.65 1/4 and then at $3.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0
July soybeans closed up 9 cents at $10.15 a bushel today.
Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a
fresh three-month high close. Prices have closed above
the strong psychological resistance level of $10.00 a
bushel, which is another bullish near-term clue. Good
export demand for U.S. soybeans this week has also helped
boost the futures market. Soybean bulls have the near-
term technical advantage and have gained more upside
momentum this week. The next downside price objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $9.70. The next upside technical
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing May prices
above solid technical resistance at $10.40. First
resistance for July soybeans is seen at today's high of
$10.15 3/4 and then at $10.20. First support is seen at
$10.00 and then at $9.93. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.
July soybean meal closed up $2.70 at $295.50 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today and
scored another fresh three-month high. Bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage and have gained more
upside momentum this week. Prices are in a six-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $279.00. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above
solid technical resistance at $300.00. First resistance
comes in at today's high of $296.70 and then at $300.00.
First support is seen at $292.50 and then at $290.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
July bean oil closed up 18 points at 39.54 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bean oil
bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical
playing field, but the bulls have faded a bit recently.
Bean oil bears' next downside technical price objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the March low of 38.46 cents. The next upside
price objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
April high of 40.96 cents. First resistance is seen at
39.70 cents and then at 39.92 cents. First support is
seen at today's low of 39.20 cents and then at 39.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0
July Chicago SRW wheat closed up 11 1/4 cents at $5.11
today. Prices closed near the session high today, scored
a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart and hit
a fresh six-week high. Bulls have regained upside
momentum amid fresh fund buying. A bullish weekly high
close on Friday would provide the bulls with better
upside near-term technical momentum to suggest the
uptrend can continue. The next downside price objective
for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at this week's low of $4.78
1/2. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
March high of $5.36 3/4 a bushel. First resistance is
seen at today's high of $5.12 and then at $5.25. First
support lies at $5.00 and then at today's low of $4.92
1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.
July K.C. HRW wheat closed up 10 1/4 cents at $5.21
today. Prices closed near the session high, scored a
bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart and hit a
fresh six-week high today. The bulls have gained upside
momentum this week and have negated a three-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the February high of $5.38. The
bears' next downside objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at this week's low
of $4.93 1/2. First resistance is seen at $5.25 and then
at $5.38. First support is seen at $5.17 1/2 and then at
$5.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.
July oats closed up 2 3/4 cents $2.22 1/4 today. Prices
closed near the session high again today and saw more
short covering in a bear market. Oats bears still have
the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. A bullish
weekly high close on Friday would be an early clue that
a market low is in place. Bears' next downside price
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $2.00. Bulls' next upside price
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $2.26 1/4. First support lies at
$2.20 and then at today's low of $2.16 1/2. First
resistance is seen at $2.23 and then at $2.26 1/4.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.
*. SOFTS: July sugar closed down 54 points at 16.15 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low today. The key
"outside markets" were in a bearish posture for sugar
today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher, while crude
oil and the U.S. stock indexes were weaker. The sugar
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in an 11-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at 18.13
cents. Bears' next downside price objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at the
April low of 15.45 cents. First resistance is seen at
today's high of 16.89 cents and then at 17.00 cents.
First support is seen at today's low of 16.10 cents and
then at 16.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0
July coffee closed up 75 points at 132.00 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high today after hitting a
fresh seven-week low early on. Short covering in a bear
market was featured. The key "outside markets" were in a
bearish posture for coffee today, as the U.S. dollar
index was higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes were weaker. That did limit buying interest in
coffee. Near-term chart damage has been inflicted
recently. Bears have the near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at 135.00 cents. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 125.00 cents a pound.
First resistance is seen at this week's high of 132.20
cents and then at 134.00 cents. First support is seen at
the February low of 130.00 cents and then at 128.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0
July cocoa closed up $48 at $3,135 today. Prices closed
near the session high again today and hit another fresh
seven-week high. Cocoa bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage and gained more upside momentum
today. A steepening four-week-old uptrend is in place on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for
the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $3,250. The next downside price
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $3,000. First resistance
is seen at today's high of $3,146 and then at $3,200.
First support is seen at $3,100 and then at today's low
of $3,059. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
July cotton closed down 33 points at 84.82 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today on mild
profit-taking pressure. Still this week's price action
has produced a major bullish upside "breakout" from a
sideways trading range at higher price levels. Bulls have
the solid near-term technical advantage. The next
downside price objective for the cotton bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at this
week's low of 80.52 cents. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 90.00 cents. First support is
seen at 84.00 cents and then at 83.50 cents. First
resistance is seen at 85.00 cents and then at 86.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.
July orange juice closed down 185 points at $1.3575
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Profit-taking pressure from recent gains was seen. The
key "outside markets" were in a bearish posture for FCOJ
today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher, while crude
oil and the U.S. stock indexes were weaker. The next
upside price objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above strong technical resistance at
$1.4000. The next downside technical objective for the
FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $1.3000. First resistance is seen at this
week's high of $1.3765 and then at $1.3900. First support
is seen at $1.3500 and then at $1.3400. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.
May lumber futures closed down $1.80 at $325.00 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and did see
mild profit-taking pressure. A major bull market run is
under way in lumber. Watch for very high volatility in
this market in the coming weeks. The bulls have the solid
near-term technical advantage. The next upside technical
objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $350.00. The
next downside price objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid support at $307.00. First
resistance is seen at the contract high of $327.40 and
then at $330.00. First support is seen at today's low of
$322.70 and then at $319.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.0.
*. METALS: June gold futures closed down $6.10 at
$1,142.70 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and
saw some profit-taking and pressure from a stronger U.S.
dollar index and weaker crude oil futures prices. The
gold market is still a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside technical objective is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
April high of $1,170.70. Bears' next downside price
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at this week's low of $1,124.30. First resistance is seen
at $1,151.20 and then at $1,160.00. Support is seen at
today's low of $1,132.00 and then at $1,124.30. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.
May silver futures closed down 8.8 cents at $17.99 an
ounce today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
some profit-taking pressure. The key "outside markets"
were in a bearish posture for silver today, as the U.S.
dollar index was stronger, while crude oil and U.S. stock
index futures prices were weaker. Silver bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at this week's low of
$17.49. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the April high
of $18.605 an ounce. First resistance is seen at today's
high of $18.17 and then at $18.25. Next support is seen
at today's low of $17.765 and then at $17.49. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.
May N.Y. copper closed down 475 points at 348.75 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key
"outside markets" were in a bearish posture for copper
today, as the U.S. dollar index was stronger, while crude
oil and U.S. stock index futures prices were weaker.
Copper bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at 340.00 cents. Bulls' next upside objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the April high of 368.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at 350.00 cents and then at today's high of 353.20 cents.
First support is seen at today's low of 346.15 cents and
then at this week's low of 345.20 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.
*. ENERGIES: June crude oil closed down $0.01 at $83.67 a
barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today. No serious chart damage has been inflicted in
crude, but the bulls need to show more power soon to keep
the uptrend on the daily bar chart in place. Crude oil
bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls
is producing a close above solid technical resistance at
the April high of $87.59 a barrel. The next downside
price objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $80.00. First
resistance is seen at today's high of $84.07 and then at
this week's high of $84.64. First support is seen at
$83.00 and then at $82.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.
June heating oil closed up 83 points at $2.2380 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today. Bulls
have the near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the April high of $2.2973. Bears'
next downside price objective is producing a close below
solid technical support at $2.1000. First resistance lies
at today's high of $2.2508 and then at $2.2750. First
support is seen at $2.2000 and then at this week's low of
$2.1631. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
June (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 146 points at
$2.3105 today. Prices closed near the session high today.
Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the April high of
$2.3636. Bears' next downside price objective is closing
prices below solid support at $2.2000. First resistance
is seen at this week's high of $2.3180 and then at
$2.3400. First support is seen at $2.2759 and then at
today's low of $2.2543. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.
June natural gas closed up 16.2 cents at $4.203 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and scored a
bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. A
positive weekly gas storage report boosted the market
today. Short covering was featured. Bears still have the
near-term technical advantage. Prices are trading
sideways and choppy at lower price levels. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the April high of
$4.421. The next downside price objective for the bears
is closing prices below solid technical support at the
contract low of $3.914. First resistance is seen at $4.25
and then at $4.359. First support is seen at $4.10 and
then at $4.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.
*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 91 points at 1.3314 today. Prices closed
nearer the session low today and hit a fresh 12-month
low. Worries about Greece's debt burden and how the EU
and IMF will deal with it were bearish for the Euro
today. Euro bears have the near-term technical advantage
and are regaining downside technical momentum. Euro
bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the April high
of 1.3694. The next downside price objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
1.3000. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.3400 and
then at today's high of $1.3424. Next support is seen at
today's low of 1.3259 and then at 1.3200. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0
The June Japanese yen closed down 62 points at 1.0691
today. Prices closed near the session low today and
scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar
chart. The bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage, and have gained fresh downside momentum this
week. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at this week's high of
1.0923. Bears' next downside objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at the April low of 1.0558.
First resistance is seen at 1.0750 and then at today's
high of 1.0788. First support is seen at last week's low
of 1.0673 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5.
The June Swiss franc closed down 62 points at .9293
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
a fresh seven-week low. Bears have the near-term
technical advantage and have regained downside momentum
recently. The next upside price objective for the bulls
is closing prices above solid resistance at .9528. The
next downside price objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the March low of
.9197. First resistance is seen at .9350 and then at
today's high of .9374. First support is seen at today's
low of .9260 and then at .9225. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5.
The June Australian dollar closed up 15 points at .9235
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a 10-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at the April high of
.9330. The next downside objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at .9000.
First resistance is seen at today's high of .9251 and
then at this week's high of .9282. Next support is seen
at today's low of .9175 and then at this week's low of
.9100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5
The June Canadian dollar closed up 4 points at 1.0000
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices
are in a 10-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price objective is producing a close
above solid chart resistance at 1.0200. The next downside
price objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at this week's low of .9789.
First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.0038 and
then at the contract high of 1.0069. First support is
seen at today's low of .9959 and then at .9900. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.
The June British pound closed down 22 points at 1.5379
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today in more
quiet trading. The bulls and bears are on a level near-
term technical playing field. A bullish double-bottom
reversal pattern may still be forming on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at
1.5600. Bears' next downside technical objective is
closing prices below solid support at 1.5000. First
resistance is seen at today's high of 1.5472 and then at
last week's high of 1.5520. First support is seen at
1.5285 and then at $1.5200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
The June U.S. dollar index closed up 45 points at 81.72
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
hit a fresh two-week high. The bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage and are regaining
upside technical momentum. Bulls' next upside price
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the April high of 82.06. The next downside
price objective for the bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at the March low of 79.73. Next
resistance lies at today's high of 81.92 and then at
82.06. First support is seen at 81.50 and then at today's
low of 81.14. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 10/32 at 117 9/32. Prices
closed nearer the session low today on profit taking
after hitting a fresh four-week high early on. The bulls
still have some upside technical momentum amid worries
about Greece's debt situation and a possible contagion
effect. The next downside price objective for the T-Bond
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
115 15/32. The next upside technical objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the March high of 118 12/32. First
resistance is seen at 117 20/32 and then at today's high
of 117 29/32. First support is seen at 117 even and then
at 116 20/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T Notes closed down 12.0 (32nds) at 116.26.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on
profit taking. Bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage in notes. The next upside price objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the
March high of 117.22.5. The next downside price objective
for the bears is producing a close below solid technical
support at the April low of 114.26.5. First resistance is
seen at 117.00.0 and then at 117.06.5. First support is
seen at today's low of 116.23.5 and then at 116.16.0.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes
closed higher and nearer the session highs today and
recovered from early selling pressure. The stock index
bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Gentle, nine-week-old uptrends are still in
place on the daily bar charts, which suggests more of the
same to come in the near term. There are still no early
technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand
in the stock indexes.
The Nasdaq futures index closed up 10.75 at 2,036.25
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
hit a fresh 22-month high. Bulls' next upside price
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
2,100.00. The bears' next downside price objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at this
week's low of 1,985.00. First resistance is seen at
today's high of 2,045.00 and then at 2,060.00. First
support is seen at 2,020.00 and then at today's low of
2,000.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.
The S&P 500 futures index closed up 1.60 at 1,202.00.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1,250.00. The next downside price objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid support at
the April low of 1,165.90. First resistance is seen at
last week's high of 1,210.40 and then at 1,220.00. First
support is seen at today's low of 1,186.70 and then at
this week's low of 1,180.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5.
The Dow futures closed up 10 points at 11,069 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 11,250. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the April low of 10,790.
First resistance in the Dow lies at today's and last
week's high of 11,100 and then at 11,150. First support
is seen at 11,000 and then at today's low of 10,965.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.
Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers
and for an explanation of my Market Rating System.
http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not
manage any trading accounts other than my own personal
account. It is my goal to point out to you potential
trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1)
decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and
(2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate.
Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and
options contracts and your obligations in entering into
those contracts. You should understand your exposure to
risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing
the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to
give you.
Jim Wyckoff
No comments:
Post a Comment