Monday, April 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in quieter overnight/early morning
trading today are a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher
U.S. stock index futures prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
With Greece's sovereign debt burden a main focus
of trader attention recently, it's likely that
downside pressure on the U.S. dollar index will be
limited, due to its "safe haven" investment status.
It's also likely the Greek debt concerns will cause
upside potential for the Euro currency to be
limited, as the European Union deals with the Greek
financial crisis.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today, and hit fresh for-the-move highs
overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage as steady, gentle, 2.5-month-
old uptrends remain in place on the daily bar
charts. There are no early clues that market tops
are close at hand in the U.S. stock indexes.
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at the overnight low of 1,210.10 and then
at 1,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just under
those levels. Upside resistance for active traders
today is located at the overnight high of 1,216.70
and then at 1,225.00. Buy stops are likely located
just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,203.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,057.50 and then
at 2,065.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 2,049.50 and then
at 2,040.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 2,030.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 11,100 and then more stops just below
support at Friday's low of 11,057. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 11,200
and then at 11,250. Shorter-term moving averages
are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 11,065
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer
in early trading today. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage amid the
Greek debt crisis providing "flight to quality"
buying of U.S. securities.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at
117 even and then at the overnight low of 116
22/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at
117 15/32 and then at last week's high of 117
29/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 116 31/32
JUNE U.S. T-Bonds
126 14/32--lifetime high
118 12/32--Previous Month's high
117 25/32--second pivot point resistance
117 15/32--previous day's high
117 11/32--first pivot point resistance
117 4/32--4-day moving average
117 --pivot point
116 28/32--previous day's close
116 23/32--9-day moving average
116 22/32--previous day's low
116 18/32--first pivot point support
116 7/32--second pivot point support
116 7/32--100-day moving average
116 2/32--18-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at 116.24.0 and then at
Friday's high of 116.31.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop
orders are likely located just below support at the
overnight low of 116.10.0 and then at 116.00.0.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 116.13.0
JUNE U.S. T-Notes
120 9/32--lifetime high
117 22/32--previous month's high
117 7/32--second pivot point resistance
116 31/32--previous day's high
116 27/32--first pivot point resistance
116 26/32--4-day moving average
116 23/32--9-day moving average
116 18/32--pivot point
116 14/32--previous day's close
116 10/32--previous day's low
116 7/32--100-day moving average
116 7/32--18-day moving average
116 6/32--first pivot point support
115 29/32--second pivot point support
115 9/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early
trading today. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bullish early today. The
dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 81.84 and then
at 82.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 81.41 and then at 81.14. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
81.62. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The June Euro is lower in early electronic trading.
Bears remain in firm technical command. Euro finds
sell stop orders are likely located just below
technical support at the overnight low of 1.3292
and then at 1.3250. Shorter-term technical
resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3350 and then
at 1.3400. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.3387. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Comex gold futures are firmer in early dealings
today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. For June gold, shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at the overnight high of
$1,160.70 and then at $1,162.80. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at the overnight low of
$1,153.50 and then at $1,150.00. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,153.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. In June crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $86.00 and then at
$87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $85.00 and then at the overnight low of
$84.75. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $85.35. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight trading. Corn bulls
faded on Friday, due to very rapid planting
progress for the U.S. corn crop. Wheat and soybean
market bulls still have some upside technical
momentum on their side after recent gains. Traders
will continue to focus on the key "outside markets"
for some direction in the grains. This morning,
those outside markets are in a neutral posture as
the U.S. dollar index is slightly higher, while
crude oil and the stock indexes are also slightly
higher.
No comments:
Post a Comment