Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Thursday, April 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today is a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil
futures prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The U.S. dollar index has backed off today on some
profit-taking pressure after reaching a 12-month
high on Wednesday, amid the European Union
sovereign debt crisis. I want to warn you that this
situation in the European Union right now is just
simmering and could turn into a full boil soon. And
if it does and if it develops into a contagion that
spreads to other parts of the world, markets will
be even more severely impacted. A full-blown, five-
alarm debt crisis worldwide would be fully bullish
for the U.S. dollar and for U.S. T-Bonds and T-
Notes. It would also likely be bullish for gold,
given this week's rally in gold. A debt contagion
would very likely be fully bearish for the world
stock and most commodity markets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today. Trading has become choppier at
higher price levels. However, bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. There are no
strong clues that market tops are close at hand in
the U.S. stock indexes.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at the overnight low of 1,188.10 and then
at Wednesday's low of 1,176.80. Sell stops likely
reside just under those levels. Upside resistance
for active traders today is located at 1,200.00 and
then at 1,210.00. Buy stops are likely located just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,192.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at Wednesday's high of
2,022.25 and then at 2,030.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
2,005.50 and then at Wednesday's low of 1,989.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,998.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 11,000 and then more stops just below
support at 10,950. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 11,100 and then at
11,150. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 11,066

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer
in early trading today. Bulls still have some near-
term technical momentum amid the EU debt crisis
that is providing "flight to quality" buying of
U.S. securities.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at
Wednesday's low of 117 14/32 and then at 117 even.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the
overnight high of 117 30/32 and then at 118 16/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117 22/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
118 29/32--second pivot point resistance
118 16/32--previous day's high
118 12/32--Previous Month's high
118 9/32--first pivot point resistance
117 27/32--pivot point
117 20/32--previous day's close
117 15/32--4-day moving average
117 14/32--previous day's low
117 7/32--first pivot point support
117 6/32--9-day moving average
116 25/32--second pivot point support
116 13/32--18-day moving average
116 6/32--100-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
117.09.5 and then at 117.16.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at the overnight low of
116.30.5 and then at 116.19.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.05.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
117 29/32--second pivot point resistance
117 22/32--previous month's high
117 20/32--previous day's high
117 16/32--first pivot point resistance
117 7/32--pivot point
117 3/32--previous day's close
116 30/32--4-day moving average
116 30/32--9-day moving average
116 30/32--previous day's low
116 26/32--first pivot point support
116 17/32--second pivot point support
116 14/32--18-day moving average
116 6/32--100-day moving average
115 9/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early
trading today, on a profit-taking, corrective
pullback from recent gains. Bulls have the firm
overall near-term technical advantage amid the EU
debt crisis. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 82.54 and then at Wednesday's high of
82.87. Shorter-term support is seen at 82.00 and
then at 81.75. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 81.81. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.5

The June Euro is higher in early electronic
trading, on a short-covering bounce in a bear
market. Bears remain in firm overall technical
command. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at 1.3200 and
then at the overnight low of 1.3186. Shorter-term
technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3300
and then at 1.3350. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro
are neutral early today. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3336.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Comex gold futures are weaker in early dealings
today, on a profit-taking pullback from recent
solid gains. Gold bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. For June gold,
shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the
overnight high of $1,171.80 and then at Wednesday's
high of $1,175.30. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just
below support at the overnight low of $1,164.60 and
then at $1,160.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,156.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. Bulls are
regaining some upside technical momentum. In June
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $84.50 and then at $85.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $84.00
and then at the overnight low of $83.01. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$82.96. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly firmer in overnight trading. The
key "outside markets" are in a bullish posture for
the grains today, as the U.S. dollar index is
weaker, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes
are higher. Traders will closely scrutinize this
morning's weekly USDA export sales data for grains.
However, the main focus going forward is the
weather in the U.S. Midwest, heading into the
planting and growing season for corn and soybeans,
and the harvest season for wheat. Right now, the
weather is deemed bearish for the grains.

No comments:

Post a Comment