Monday, June 7-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The markets are calmer to start the new trading
week as there was no major fresh fundamental
developments on the European Union or geopolitical
fronts during the weekend to move the markets. The
U.S. stock indexes on Friday came closer to
establishing fresh for-the-move lows during the
present downtrends in prices. If the U.S. stock
indexes do close below their recent lows, that
would produce more serious technical damage to
suggest the bear market in stocks would continue in
the coming weeks, or longer.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at 1,060 and then at the overnight low of
1,052.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those
levels. Upside resistance for active traders today
is located at 1,075.00 and then at 1,085.00. Buy
stops are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 1,850.00 and then at 1,865.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 1,825.00
and then at the overnight low of 1,812.75. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 9,900 and then more stops just below
support at Friday's low of 9,880. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 10,000
and then at Friday's high of 10,095. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at 124 even and then
at 124 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies
at 123 16/32 and then at 123 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds
126 5/32--lifetime high
126 5/32--Previous Month's high
126 3/32--second pivot point resistance
125 8/32--first pivot point resistance
124 14/32--previous day's high
124 12/32--previous day's close
123 18/32--pivot point
123 8/32--9-day moving average
122 27/32--4-day moving average
122 23/32--first pivot point support
122 14/32--18-day moving average
121 29/32--previous day's low
121 1/32--second pivot point support
117 18/32--previous month's low
116 28/32--100-day moving average
111 1/32--lifetime low
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 120.24.0 and then at the
overnight high of 121.02.5. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at 120.10.0 and then at
120.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes
121 25/32--second pivot point resistance
121 20/32--lifetime high
121 20/32--previous month's high
121 8/32--first pivot point resistance
120 25/32--previous day's high
120 23/32--previous day's close
120 8/32--pivot point
120 2/32--9-day moving average
119 28/32--4-day moving average
119 23/32--first pivot point support
119 14/32--18-day moving average
119 8/32--previous day's low
118 23/32--second pivot point support
116 5/32--previous month's low
116 --100-day moving average
110 13/32--lifetime low
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is trading firmer
and hit another fresh 14-month high in early
trading today. Dollar index bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 89.22
and then at 89.50. Shorter-term support is seen at
88.50 and then at 88.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical
advantage and gained more downside momentum with
Friday's big down day in prices. In July crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance
at $72.00 and then at $72.50. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $71.00 and then at
$70.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were steady to weaker in overnight trading.
Weather in the U.S. midwest remains beneficial for
the growing corn and soybean crops and beneficial
for wheat harvest. The critical pollination stage
of corn development is now just around three weeks
away for much of the U.S. Corn Belt corn crop. The
corn market bulls are presently in trouble as U.S.
Corn Belt crop conditions continue to very good.
The grain market bulls are presently on the ropes
as prices are trading at or near the recent lows in
the markets. The raw commodity futures markets, in
general, have taken a beating recently, led by
crude oil prices.
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