Wednesday, June 9-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Here are my market biases at present: Crude oil has
made or is near a bottom, and so are the grains and
U.S. stock indexes. Gold has more room to run on
the upside and so does the U.S. dollar index.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at the overnight low of 1,052.80 and then
at this week's low of 1,041.20. Sell stops likely
reside just under those levels. Upside resistance
for active traders today is located at this week's
high of 1,070.70 and then at 1,080.00. Buy stops
are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 1,800.00 and then at
Tuesday's high of 1,815.25. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-
term support is seen at the overnight low of
1,782.00 and then at this week's low of 1,770.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 9,900 and then more stops just below
support at 9,850. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 9,970 and then at
10,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 124 17/32 and then at this week's
high of 125 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at 124 even and then at this week's low of 123
22/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds
126 5/32--lifetime high
126 5/32--Previous Month's high
125 10/32--second pivot point resistance
124 31/32--previous day's high
124 27/32--first pivot point resistance
124 15/32--pivot point
124 11/32--previous day's close
124 4/32--previous day's low
124 --first pivot point support
123 23/32--4-day moving average
123 20/32--second pivot point support
123 7/32--9-day moving average
122 29/32--18-day moving average
117 18/32--previous month's low
117 3/32--100-day moving average
111 1/32--lifetime low
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Buy stops likely reside just above
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 121.00.5 and then at this week's high of
121.07.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Sell stop orders are likely located just
below support at this week's low of 120.13.5 and
then at 120.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5
SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes
121 20/32--lifetime high
121 20/32--previous month's high
121 12/32--second pivot point resistance
121 6/32--previous day's high
121 4/32--first pivot point resistance
120 29/32--pivot point
120 27/32--previous day's close
120 23/32--previous day's low
120 21/32--first pivot point support
120 14/32--second pivot point support
120 14/32--4-day moving average
120 3/32--9-day moving average
119 25/32--18-day moving average
116 5/32--previous month's low
116 5/32--100-day moving average
110 13/32--lifetime low
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is trading weaker
in early trading, on more profit taking after
prices hit a fresh 14-month high on Monday. Dollar
index bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 88.90 and then at Tuesday's
high of 89.10. Shorter-term support is seen at
88.25 and then at 88.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. In July crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $74.00 and then at
$75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were slightly higher in overnight trading.
Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage in the grains as corn and wheat are at or
near contract lows and soybeans are at the bottom
of the recent trading range. Weather in the U.S.
midwest remains beneficial for the growing corn and
soybean crops and beneficial for wheat harvest. It
will take a significant weather market scare to
jumpstart any solid rallies in the near term.
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