Tuesday, August 24-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Most commodity markets are under selling pressure
early Tuesday, being led lower by slumping European
and U.S. stock markets, amid worries about world
economic weakness in the coming months. There are
compelling clues that the commodity markets will
experience stiff headwinds in the coming months--
with a major clue being the extremely low U.S.
Treasury yields at present, which do hint at
commodity price deflation.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,065.70 and then at Monday's high of 1,080.20. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is
located at 1,050.80 and then at the May low of
1,036.60. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
4.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 1,810.25 and then
at 1,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 1,792.25 and then
at 1,780.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,050 and then more stops just below
support at 10,000. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,144 and then at
10,200. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight contract high of 135 7/32 and then at 135
16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 135
even and then at 134 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 8.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

135 7/32--lifetime high
134 24/32--second pivot point resistance
134 15/32--first pivot point resistance
134 11/32--previous day's high
134 7/32--previous day's close
134 3/32--pivot point
133 31/32--4-day moving average
133 26/32--first pivot point support
133 22/32--previous day's low
133 14/32--second pivot point support
133 1/32--9-day moving average
132 17/32--Previous Month's high
130 25/32--18-day moving average
125 7/32--previous month's low
123 20/32--100-day moving average
111 1/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Buy stops likely reside just above
shorter-term technical resistance at the contract
high of 126.08.0 and then at 126.16.0. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders
are likely located just below support at 126.00.0
and then at the overnight low of 125.23.0.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 8/32--lifetime high
126 5/32--second pivot point resistance
125 30/32--first pivot point resistance
125 26/32--previous day's high
125 24/32--previous day's close
125 23/32--4-day moving average
125 22/32--9-day moving average
125 20/32--pivot point
125 13/32--first pivot point support
125 9/32--previous day's low
125 3/32--second pivot point support
124 27/32--18-day moving average
123 28/32--previous month's high
121 14/32--previous month's low
120 9/32--100-day moving average
110 13/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early
trading. Bulls have regained upside bullish
momentum as prices hit a fresh six-week high
overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 84.00 and then
at 84.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 83.73 and then at 83.50. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower early today and
hit a fresh three-month low overnight. Bears have
downside near-term technical momentum. In October
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $73.05 and then
at $73.50. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $72.00 and then at $71.50. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. The key
"outside markets" are in a bearish posture for the
grains this morning: the U.S. dollar index is
higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes
are lower. The generally weak posture of the
commodity sector today also does not bode well for
the grain market bulls.

Monday, August 23-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Markets are generally quiet to start the trading
week. We are nearing the end of the "dog days of
summer." Next week will likely be another quieter,
lower-volume trading week, heading into the U.S.
Labor Day holiday. In early September, look for
market activity to heat up significantly, as
traders in the U.S. and Europe get back to serious
business, following summertime vacations.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at 1,085.00 and then at last
week's high of 1,098.50. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at the overnight
low of 1,068.80 and then at last week's low of
1,061.80. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 1,850.00 and then at last week's high of
1,862.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 1,824.50 and then at
Friday's low of 1,808.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,200 and then more stops just below
support at 10,150. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,250 and then at
10,300. Shorter-term moving averages are still
bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below
the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 134 9/32 and then at 134 16/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 133 27/32 and then at 133 16/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

135 7/32--lifetime high
135 22/32--second pivot point resistance
135 7/32--previous day's high
134 27/32--first pivot point resistance
134 12/32--pivot point
134 --previous day's close
133 29/32--previous day's low
133 21/32--4-day moving average
133 17/32--first pivot point support
133 2/32--second pivot point support
132 17/32--9-day moving average
132 17/32--Previous Month's high
130 12/32--18-day moving average
125 7/32--previous month's low
123 14/32--100-day moving average
111 1/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
125.20.0 and then at 126.00.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at last week's low of
125.06.5 and then at 125.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 18/32--second pivot point resistance
126 8/32--lifetime high
126 8/32--previous day's high
126 1/32--first pivot point resistance
125 24/32--pivot point
125 22/32--4-day moving average
125 20/32--9-day moving average
125 17/32--previous day's close
125 14/32--previous day's low
125 7/32--first pivot point support
124 30/32--second pivot point support
124 22/32--18-day moving average
123 28/32--previous month's high
121 14/32--previous month's low
120 5/32--100-day moving average
110 13/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower
in early trading. Bulls have regained upside
bullish momentum after producing a bullish weekly
high close on Friday. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 83.24 and then at last week's
high of 83.43. Shorter-term support is seen at
82.75 and then at 82.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading slightly higher early
today after hitting a fresh six-week low and
closing at a bearish weekly low close on Friday.
Bears still have some downside technical momentum.
In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $74.50 and then at $75.00. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at last
week's low of $73.44 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading. The key
"outside markets" are in a slightly bullish posture
for the grains this morning: the U.S. dollar index
is weaker, while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes are slightly higher. Soybean market bulls
have faded recently, but the corn bulls still have
some upside near-term technical momentum. Wheat has
seen choppy trading, but it still appears a market
top is in place in wheat.