Wednesday, April 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today is a firmer U.S. dollar index that hit a fresh 12-
month high Tuesday.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The European Union's smaller countries' debt
problems--Greece and Portugal at present--are the
main focus of trader attention in many markets this
week. The keener risk aversion this week has and
will continue to impact many markets. Markets that
are supported by the EU debt worries this week
include the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries and gold.
The commodity futures markets and world stock
markets are feeling some pressure from the
situation. Don't look for this European Union debt
problem to go away any time soon, and it could
deteriorate quickly.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today, on a corrective bounce from strong
selling pressure seen on Tuesday. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. There
are no strong clues that market tops are close at
hand in the U.S. stock indexes.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at the overnight low of 1,176.80 and then
at 1,170.00. Sell stops likely reside just under
those levels. Upside resistance for active traders
today is located at 1,190.00 and then at 1,200.00.
Buy stops are likely located just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,182.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 2,025.00 and then at
2,040.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen
at Tuesday's low of 1,998.00 and then at 1,985.50.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,998.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,950 and then more stops just below
support at Tuesday's low of 10,920. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
11,000 and then at 11,050. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,949

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker
in early trading today, on a corrective pullback
from strong gains posted on Tuesday. Bulls still
have some near-term technical momentum amid the EU
debt crisis that is providing "flight to quality"
buying of U.S. securities.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support
lies at 117 29/32 and then at 117 16/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at the overnight high of
118 16/32 and then at Tuesday's high of 118 24/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117 22/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
119 27/32--second pivot point resistance
119 2/32--first pivot point resistance
118 24/32--previous day's high
118 12/32--Previous Month's high
118 10/32--previous day's close
118 --pivot point
117 11/32--4-day moving average
117 7/32--first pivot point support
117 --9-day moving average
116 29/32--previous day's low
116 8/32--18-day moving average
116 7/32--100-day moving average
116 5/32--second pivot point support
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 117.24.0 and then at the
overnight high of 117.30.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at the overnight low of
117.12.5 and then at 117.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.05.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
118 20/32--second pivot point resistance
118 5/32--first pivot point resistance
117 27/32--previous day's high
117 22/32--previous month's high
117 22/32--previous day's close
117 12/32--pivot point
116 29/32--first pivot point support
116 28/32--4-day moving average
116 28/32--9-day moving average
116 19/32--previous day's low
116 11/32--18-day moving average
116 7/32--100-day moving average
116 4/32--second pivot point support
115 9/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer again in early
trading today. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage and have recently gained fresh
upside momentum amid the EU debt crisis. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 82.75 and
then at 83.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 82.27 and then at 82.00. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
81.78. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

The June Euro is lower again in early electronic
trading, and hit a fresh 12-month low overnight.
Bears remain in firm technical command. Euro finds
sell stop orders are likely located just below
technical support at the overnight low of 1.3145
and then at 1.3100. Shorter-term technical
resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3250 and then
at 1.3300. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.3355. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are firmer in early dealings
today, on safe-haven buying interest from the EU
debt crisis. Gold is firmer despite the firmer U.S.
dollar index. Gold bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage and have regained
upside momentum recently. For June gold, shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at $1,170.70 and
then at Tuesday's high of $1,173.40. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops
likely reside just below support at the overnight
low of $1,161.30 and then at $1,155.00. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$1,155.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today but
did hit a fresh five-week low overnight. Bulls are
fading. In June crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $83.00 and then at $84.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$82.00 and then at the overnight low of $81.29.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: $82.96. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly firmer in overnight trading, on
a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure.
Corn bulls have faded due to very rapid planting
progress for the U.S. corn crop. Wheat bulls have
also faded this week. Soybean market bulls still
have some upside technical momentum on their side
after recent gains. Traders will continue to focus
on the key "outside markets" for some direction in
the grains. But the main focus going forward is now
the weather in the U.S. Midwest, heading into the
planting and growing season for corn and soybeans,
and the harvest season for wheat.

Tuesday, April 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in quieter overnight/early morning
trading today are a firmer U.S. dollar index and weaker
U.S. stock index and crude oil futures prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

U.S. Treasury bonds and notes futures prices are
higher this morning, and prices have been rallying
recently on the Greek debt issue and concerns that
sovereign debt problems could turn into a worldwide
contagion. I would not want to be short T-Bonds and
T-Notes at present. Neither would I want to be long
the Euro currency.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning
trading today, on profit-taking pressure from
recent steady gains. Bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. There are no early
clues that market tops are close at hand in the
U.S. stock indexes.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at 1,200.00 and then at 1,190.00. Sell
stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside
resistance for active traders today is located at
the overnight high of 1,209.90 and then at Monday's
high of 1,216.70. Buy stops are likely located just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,198.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,050.00 and then
at Monday's high of 2,057.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
2,038.75 and then at 2,030.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 2,030.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 11,100 and then more stops just below
support at 11,057. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 11,155 and then at
Monday's high of 11,210. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 11,065

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher
in early trading today. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage amid the Greek debt
crisis providing "flight to quality" buying of U.S.
securities.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 116 29/32 and then at the
Monday's low of 116 22/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Shorter-term technical
resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 15/32
and then at last week's high of 117 29/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 116 31/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
118 12/32--Previous Month's high
117 27/32--second pivot point resistance
117 15/32--previous day's high
117 13/32--first pivot point resistance
117 6/32--4-day moving average
117 2/32--pivot point
117 --previous day's close
116 24/32--9-day moving average
116 22/32--previous day's low
116 20/32--first pivot point support
116 9/32--second pivot point support
116 7/32--100-day moving average
116 4/32--18-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 117.00.0 and then at the
April high of 117.13.5. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at the overnight low of
116.19.5 and then at Monday's low of 116.10.0.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 116.13.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
117 22/32--previous month's high
117 3/32--second pivot point resistance
116 27/32--first pivot point resistance
116 26/32--previous day's high
116 25/32--4-day moving average
116 23/32--9-day moving average
116 20/32--previous day's close
116 19/32--pivot point
116 11/32--first pivot point support
116 10/32--previous day's low
116 8/32--18-day moving average
116 7/32--100-day moving average
116 3/32--second pivot point support
115 9/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer again in early
trading today. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
82.00 and then at last week's high of 82.20.
Shorter-term support is seen at 81.50 and then at
the overnight low of 81.36. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 81.62.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

The June Euro is lower again in early electronic
trading. Bears remain in firm technical command.
Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just
below technical support at Monday's low of 1.3292
and then at 1.3250. Shorter-term technical
resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3350 and then
at the overnight high of 1.3415. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics
for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
1.3387. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are weaker in early dealings
today, amid the stronger U.S. dollar index. Gold
bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. For June gold, shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at the overnight high of
$1,157.60 and then at Monday's high of $1,160.70.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Sell stops likely reside just below support at the
overnight low of $1,150.40 and then at $1,146.60.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: $1,153.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker again early today.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. In June crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $84.00 and then at
$85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $83.06 and then at
$82.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $83.97. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were steady to weaker in overnight trading.
Corn bulls have faded due to very rapid planting
progress for the U.S. corn crop. Wheat bulls faded
badly on Monday. Soybean market bulls still have
some upside technical momentum on their side after
recent gains. Traders will continue to focus on the
key "outside markets" for some direction in the
grains. But the main focus going forward is now the
weather in the U.S. Midwest, heading into the
planting and growing season for corn and soybeans,
and the harvest season for wheat.