Silver Chart

Silver Chart

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Wednesday, June 9-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Here are my market biases at present: Crude oil has
made or is near a bottom, and so are the grains and
U.S. stock indexes. Gold has more room to run on
the upside and so does the U.S. dollar index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at the overnight low of 1,052.80 and then
at this week's low of 1,041.20. Sell stops likely
reside just under those levels. Upside resistance
for active traders today is located at this week's
high of 1,070.70 and then at 1,080.00. Buy stops
are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 1,800.00 and then at
Tuesday's high of 1,815.25. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-
term support is seen at the overnight low of
1,782.00 and then at this week's low of 1,770.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 9,900 and then more stops just below
support at 9,850. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 9,970 and then at
10,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 124 17/32 and then at this week's
high of 125 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at 124 even and then at this week's low of 123
22/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

126 5/32--lifetime high
126 5/32--Previous Month's high
125 10/32--second pivot point resistance
124 31/32--previous day's high
124 27/32--first pivot point resistance
124 15/32--pivot point
124 11/32--previous day's close
124 4/32--previous day's low
124 --first pivot point support
123 23/32--4-day moving average
123 20/32--second pivot point support
123 7/32--9-day moving average
122 29/32--18-day moving average
117 18/32--previous month's low
117 3/32--100-day moving average
111 1/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Buy stops likely reside just above
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 121.00.5 and then at this week's high of
121.07.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Sell stop orders are likely located just
below support at this week's low of 120.13.5 and
then at 120.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes

121 20/32--lifetime high
121 20/32--previous month's high
121 12/32--second pivot point resistance
121 6/32--previous day's high
121 4/32--first pivot point resistance
120 29/32--pivot point
120 27/32--previous day's close
120 23/32--previous day's low
120 21/32--first pivot point support
120 14/32--second pivot point support
120 14/32--4-day moving average
120 3/32--9-day moving average
119 25/32--18-day moving average
116 5/32--previous month's low
116 5/32--100-day moving average
110 13/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is trading weaker
in early trading, on more profit taking after
prices hit a fresh 14-month high on Monday. Dollar
index bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 88.90 and then at Tuesday's
high of 89.10. Shorter-term support is seen at
88.25 and then at 88.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. In July crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $74.00 and then at
$75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were slightly higher in overnight trading.
Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage in the grains as corn and wheat are at or
near contract lows and soybeans are at the bottom
of the recent trading range. Weather in the U.S.
midwest remains beneficial for the growing corn and
soybean crops and beneficial for wheat harvest. It
will take a significant weather market scare to
jumpstart any solid rallies in the near term.

Monday, June 7, 2010

Monday, June 7-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The markets are calmer to start the new trading
week as there was no major fresh fundamental
developments on the European Union or geopolitical
fronts during the weekend to move the markets. The
U.S. stock indexes on Friday came closer to
establishing fresh for-the-move lows during the
present downtrends in prices. If the U.S. stock
indexes do close below their recent lows, that
would produce more serious technical damage to
suggest the bear market in stocks would continue in
the coming weeks, or longer.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at 1,060 and then at the overnight low of
1,052.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those
levels. Upside resistance for active traders today
is located at 1,075.00 and then at 1,085.00. Buy
stops are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 1,850.00 and then at 1,865.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 1,825.00
and then at the overnight low of 1,812.75. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 9,900 and then more stops just below
support at Friday's low of 9,880. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 10,000
and then at Friday's high of 10,095. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at 124 even and then
at 124 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies
at 123 16/32 and then at 123 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

126 5/32--lifetime high
126 5/32--Previous Month's high
126 3/32--second pivot point resistance
125 8/32--first pivot point resistance
124 14/32--previous day's high
124 12/32--previous day's close
123 18/32--pivot point
123 8/32--9-day moving average
122 27/32--4-day moving average
122 23/32--first pivot point support
122 14/32--18-day moving average
121 29/32--previous day's low
121 1/32--second pivot point support
117 18/32--previous month's low
116 28/32--100-day moving average
111 1/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 120.24.0 and then at the
overnight high of 121.02.5. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at 120.10.0 and then at
120.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes

121 25/32--second pivot point resistance
121 20/32--lifetime high
121 20/32--previous month's high
121 8/32--first pivot point resistance
120 25/32--previous day's high
120 23/32--previous day's close
120 8/32--pivot point
120 2/32--9-day moving average
119 28/32--4-day moving average
119 23/32--first pivot point support
119 14/32--18-day moving average
119 8/32--previous day's low
118 23/32--second pivot point support
116 5/32--previous month's low
116 --100-day moving average
110 13/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is trading firmer
and hit another fresh 14-month high in early
trading today. Dollar index bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 89.22
and then at 89.50. Shorter-term support is seen at
88.50 and then at 88.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical
advantage and gained more downside momentum with
Friday's big down day in prices. In July crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance
at $72.00 and then at $72.50. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $71.00 and then at
$70.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were steady to weaker in overnight trading.
Weather in the U.S. midwest remains beneficial for
the growing corn and soybean crops and beneficial
for wheat harvest. The critical pollination stage
of corn development is now just around three weeks
away for much of the U.S. Corn Belt corn crop. The
corn market bulls are presently in trouble as U.S.
Corn Belt crop conditions continue to very good.
The grain market bulls are presently on the ropes
as prices are trading at or near the recent lows in
the markets. The raw commodity futures markets, in
general, have taken a beating recently, led by
crude oil prices.

Thursday, June 3, 2010

Thursday, June 3-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

There is no standout market features in overnight/early
morning trading today as the markets have calmed down a
bit.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The grain markets can be more active in the
summertime months, as corn, soybeans and wheat
crops in the U.S. are in the ground and growing, or
are about to be harvested (wheat). The summertime
months are when "weather markets" occur in the
grains. So far this year, the weather in the U.S.
Corn Belt has been benign, which is bearish for the
grains. However, the time for higher heat and
potential dryness of summer is now upon us, and
will be for the next three months. More years than
not, some degree of a weather market in the grains
does develop and play out in the summertime. If you
would like to read an interesting article I wrote a
while back, entitled "Fear and Greed in a Weather
Market in the Grains," I'd be happy to email it to
you. Just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and
I'll attach it and send it back to you.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today, on follow-through buying from solid
gains scored Wednesday. The bulls are now gaining
some upside near-term technical momentum, but need
to show more power soon to better suggest a market
low is in place.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at the overnight low of 1,095.50
and then at 1,080.00. Sell stops likely reside just
under those levels. Upside resistance for active
traders today is located at last week's high of
1,106.70 and then at 1,115.00. Buy stops are likely
located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,106.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of
1,889.00 and then at 1,900.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
1,876.00 and then at 1,860.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,895.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,200 and then more stops just below
support at 10,150. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,300 and then at
10,350. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,333

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker
in early trading today, on profit-taking and as the
stock indexes are firmer today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage, but are
fading and need to show fresh power soon. Bonds and
notes will continue to benefit from any fresh world
financial market or geopolitical uncertainty.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 122 17/32 and then at 123 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 121
26/32 and then at 121 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 121 28/32

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

126 5/32--lifetime high
126 5/32--Previous Month's high
124 --second pivot point resistance
123 16/32--previous day's high
123 15/32--9-day moving average
123 4/32--first pivot point resistance
122 21/32--pivot point
122 17/32--4-day moving average
122 9/32--previous day's close
122 5/32--previous day's low
122 5/32--18-day moving average
121 25/32--first pivot point support
121 10/32--second pivot point support
117 18/32--previous month's low
116 22/32--100-day moving average
111 1/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
119.19.5 and then at 120.00.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at 119.00.0 and then at
118.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118.27.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes

121 20/32--lifetime high
121 20/32--previous month's high
120 14/32--second pivot point resistance
120 6/32--previous day's high
120 3/32--9-day moving average
119 31/32--first pivot point resistance
119 22/32--pivot point
119 22/32--4-day moving average
119 15/32--previous day's close
119 14/32--previous day's low
119 7/32--18-day moving average
119 7/32--first pivot point support
118 30/32--second pivot point support
116 5/32--previous month's low
115 28/32--100-day moving average
110 13/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is trading near
steady in early trading today. Dollar index bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage as prices hover near 14-month highs. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 87.60
and then at the May high of 87.92. Shorter-term
support is seen at 87.00 and then at the overnight
low of 86.75. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 87.07. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.0

The September Euro is trading near steady in early
electronic trading as prices hover near four-year
lows. Bears remain in firm overall technical
command. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at the
overnight low of 1.2242 and then at 1.2200.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at the overnight high of 1.2339 and then at
this week's high of 1.2368. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the
Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2253.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

GOLD

Comex gold futures are weaker in early dealings
today, on some more corrective profit-taking
pressure from recent gains. Gold bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. For
August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at the overnight high of $1,226.50 and then at
this week's high of $1,230.60. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at this week's low of
$1,211.60 and then at $1,200.00. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,220.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher today. In July
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $74.00 and then at the overnight high
of $74.40. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $72.50 and then at $72.00. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$72.81. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Grain
traders will continue to focus on what the key
"outside markets" are doing. The outside markets
this morning are slightly bullish, as the U.S.
dollar index is weaker, while crude oil and the
U.S. stock indexes are firmer. The critical
pollination stage of corn development is now just
three or for weeks away for much of the U.S. Corn
Belt corn crop. The corn market bulls are likely
going to be in trouble if U.S. Corn Belt crop
conditions continue to be ideal the next four
weeks.