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Sunday, August 9, 2009

Futures Traders AM Report


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Tuesday, September 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web
Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are a lower U.S. dollar and higher crude oil and gold
prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

One day does not a trend make. After showing modest
gains on Monday, the U.S. dollar is under stronger
selling pressure Tuesday morning. There are still
no early technical clues that the U.S. dollar index
has put in a major low. A couple of early clues
that the dollar index has put in a major low would
be two days in a row of strong price gains, or a
bullish weekly high close on a Friday. Right now,
the path of least resistance for the U.S. dollar
remains sideways to lower. That's a bullish
scenario for gold, crude oil and most of the other
commodity markets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early morning
trading today. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage as the stock indexes are
still in price uptrends on the daily bar charts.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at the overnight low of 1,059.50
and then at Monday's low of 1,051.80. Sell stops
likely reside just under those levels. Upside
resistance for active traders today is located at
last week's high of 1,070.50 and then at 1,080.00.
Buy stops are likely located just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,039.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------- 1,058.30
1st Support:-------- 1,053.90
2nd Support:-------- 1,047.40
1st Resistance:----- 1,064.80
2nd Resistance:----- 1,069.20

December Nasdaq Index: Prices hit a fresh 12-month
high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support
is located at the overnight low of 1,728.75 and
then at Monday's low of 1,708.75. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. On the upside,
short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high
of 1,740.00 and then at 1,750.00. Buy stops are
likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,683.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,723.50
1st Support:------ 1,713.00
2nd Support:------ 1,698.25
1st Resistance:--- 1,738.25
2nd Resistance:--- 1,748.75

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 9,750 and then more stops just below
support at 9,700. Buy stops likely reside just
above shorter-term technical resistance at 9,800
and then at 9,850. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 9,570

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 9,710
1st Support:------ 9,678
2nd Support:------ 9,639
1st Resistance:--- 9,749
2nd Resistance:--- 9,781

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are steady to slightly
lower in early trading today. Trading has turned
choppy recently.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
118 22/32 and then at 118 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at the overnight high of
119 6/32 and then at 119 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119 15/32

December U.S. T-Bonds

137 23/32--lifetime high
120 15/32--second pivot point resistance
119 31/32--previous day's high
119 31/32--Previous Month's high
119 26/32--first pivot point resistance
119 17/32--18-day moving average
119 16/32--9-day moving average
119 11/32--4-day moving average
119 9/32--pivot point
119 4/32--previous day's close
118 25/32--previous day's low
118 20/32--first pivot point support
118 3/32--second pivot point support
117 2/32--100-day moving average
113 16/32--previous month's low
110 --lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Buy stops likely reside just above
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 116.29.5 and then at 117.13.0. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders
are likely located just below support at the
overnight low of 116.19.0 and then at 116.08.0.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.18.0

December U.S. T-Notes

125 28/32--lifetime high
117 21/32--second pivot point resistance
117 13/32--previous day's high
117 9/32--9-day moving average
117 9/32--previous month's high
117 9/32--first pivot point resistance
117 8/32--18-day moving average
117 --pivot point
117 --4-day moving average
116 28/32--previous day's close
116 24/32--previous day's low
116 20/32--first pivot point support
116 11/32--second pivot point support
115 28/32--100-day moving average
113 6/32--previous month's low
107 3/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early
trading today, and hit another fresh contract low
overnight. Bears still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
76.50 and then at the overnight high of 76.95.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight
contract low of 76.22 and then at 76.00. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
77.39. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

The December Euro is higher in early electronic
trading. Prices hit a fresh 14-month high
overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at 1.4700 and
then at the overnight low of 1.4675. Shorter-term
technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the
overnight high of 1.4822 and then at 1.4850. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow
stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1.4705. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
6.0

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. For
December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at the overnight high of $1,019.80 and then at
last week's high of $1,025.80. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at $1,010.00 and then at
the overnight low of $1,004.20. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,010.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. Trading
has turned choppy. In November crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at $72.00 and
then just above resistance at Monday's high of
$72.65. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $70.00 and then more sell stops just
below support at $69.27. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $70.65.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, on short
covering and as the key "outside markets" are
bullish for grains early today. Crude oil prices
and stock indexes are higher, while the U.S. dollar
is solidly lower. Bears still have the overall
technical advantage in all the grain futures
markets.

*** To view Jim Wyckoff website http://www.jimwyckoff.com/